Q&A of the Day – Could Donald Trump Win the Biggest Landslide Since Reagan?

Q&A of the Day – Could Donald Trump Win the Biggest Landslide Since Reagan?

Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods.

iHeartRadio: Use the Talkback feature – the microphone button on our station’s page in the iHeart app.

Today’s entry: @brianmuddradio We’re only four months out now and the polls have never been better for Trump or any Republican that I can remember. How big could a Trump win be? Could it be the biggest since Reagan in ‘84?

Bottom Line: I’m entertaining this question today for one reason. Actually two... 1) I’m not superstitious. 2) I know a lot of people are in a holiday frame of mind looking to have fun today with an extended Independence Day weekend. Warning...If you’re a Trump supporter this exercise will be fun. Maybe not as much fun as watching Trump’s subtle reactions to Joe Biden at the debate – you know with the occasional glance over by Trump where you know he was thinking wow...this guy is even further out to lunch than I realized? Seriously, the greatest exercise in restraint by any politician any of us have ever seen happened with Trump on that debate stage last week. In any event it is July 5th and sure enough Election Day is November 5th making it preciously four months away...There is light on the horizon... For this exercise I’m going to use my Anatomy of a Swing State model as the basis for this analysis as that’s the model I use to estimate an Electoral College outcome. Before diving into the view of the possible for Trump, let’s look at the size of the presidential wins since Reagan’s historic 49 state victory in 1984 (reflected in electoral college votes).

This exercise paints an interesting picture. There are several trivia questions that pop up within this comparison. For example, did you know that despite losing the national popular vote Trump’s electoral college victory was larger than Biden’s? Did you know that George W. Bush’s total margin of victory in his two election wins (40 votes) is the smallest by a two-term president in American history? But back to the question at hand...

Many may not associate George H.W. Bush with having won the biggest election win since Reagan because he lost his reelection bid four years later but that’s the case with an extremely high bar that’s set for any presidential candidate to clear. So how is Trump currently pacing and how many states could he win?

Using the RealClear Politics average of polls Trump is currently performing 10.1% better head-to-head against Joe Biden today compared to Election Day and 11.4% better when 3rd party candidates are factored in.

These are the states that Joe Biden won by 11.4% or less in 2020:

• Arizona, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Virginia

Based on what we’re seeing nationally, all of those states are potentially in play if the election were today. That provides the view of the possible. As for the here and now using the RealClear average of state polls shows...

• Biden leads in: Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Virginia