Florida’s Primary Day – Top 3 Takeaways – August 18th, 2026

Takeaway #1: Is there an enthusiasm gap?

The number one thing that I’ll be watching as the votes are quickly tabulated tonight is whether there’s a partisan turnout disparity. It’s no secret that midterm election years are particularly challenging for the President’s party. As I’ve brought you every few weeks throughout the primary season, the historical partisan splits in midterm elections look like this... Since the advent of the current two-party system (41 midterm elections), we've averaged the President's party losing 3 U.S. Senate seats and 28 seats in the House of Representatives in midterm election cycles. There are only three times that the incumbent President's party has gained seats (1934 during FDR's first term, 1998 during Bill Clinton's second term, and 2002 during George W. Bush's first term) thus only 3 out of 41 midterm elections have resulted in the President's party netting additional congressional seats. Meaning that with each of the three outlier elections there’s been a historic catalyst that’s led to the atypical outcome. Here's another way of looking at it... History suggests there's a 93% chance Democrats will gain Congressional seats this cycle. The historic inertia of midterm cycle momentum appears to be especially on the Democrats’ side as the only major current catalyst – Iran/energy prices – is only aiding the Left’s political ambitions thus far this cycle. During the two decades Florida proved to be the ultimate swing state, I would commonly say that as Florida would go, the country would go... Since Florida’s moved from being the ultimate swing state to the ultimate red state – that's no longer the case. However, what Florida is a barometer for is the Republican Party. As the ultimate red state, Florida’s Republicans are a leading indicator of the right’s enthusiasm and a key turnout indicator. With open top-of-the-ticket races in both political parties – let alone a host of other partisan and none partisan races to be decided today – there's amble reason for all partisans to turnout to vote today (if they haven’t already). What those splits say at the end of the day will reveal a key about where we stand in our state, and perhaps nationally, with fewer than three months until Election Day. By way of voter registration, as of the end of July – with voters eligible to vote today, Florida is currently an R+11.4% state. Factoring in all votes cast by today’s Election Day...Republicans have only outvoted Democrats by 3.4%...That’s an eight-point relative deficit taken into today. Republicans do historically outvote Democrats on Election Day...so this gap will change today – but the question is where it lands in the end. That dynamic could speak to how competitive Florida’s statewide races might be in November and many of the closer races congressionally and locally...in addition to acting as a temperature check for Republicans nationally.

Takeaway #2: Does the DSA play in Florida?

Without a doubt the biggest storyline on the Left during this primary season to date has been the rise of the DSA in the Democrat Party. After another big week for DSA-backed candidates in primaries last week... The DSA now sports 61 wins compared to 54 losses...for a 53% overall win rate. The DSA – when it challenges the DNC, has now won most of the time this primary season! Last week I highlighted the DSA’s Florida four. There are four DSA-backed candidates running against Democrat establishment candidates this cycle. This includes two congressional candidates and two local government picks. The congressional DSAers are Oliver Larkin running in the redistricted Congressional District 25 Democrat Primary against Jared Moskowitz, and Brittney Robinson in Florida’s 4th. The two other socialist picks include Aaron Lewis for Orange County Commissioner and Richie Floyd for St. Petersburg City Council. DSA candidates have generally been viewed as long shot candidates, but as they’ve been able prove with a 53%-win rate to date... They’re candidates than should be taken seriously in a Democrat Party that’s moved 20% further to the left over the past twenty years. I’ll be watching the outcomes of those races to see if the DSA has begun to grab a foothold in Florida as has been the case in most other states – or whether the Democrat’s establishment picks prove to be resilient today...speaking of which...

Takeaway #3: Is this the end of DWS & Other Redistricting themes...

While candidates like Byron Donalds, David Jolly and Ashley Moody are viewed as clear favorites to win their primary races today – there’s more political intrigue in congressional seats entering today’s primary day than perhaps we’ve ever seen. That’s due in large part to Florida’s historic mid-term redistricting this spring, resulting in significant changes in district geography and partisan lean. South Florida is front and center and the most intriguing involves former Democratic Committee Chairwoman and South Florida political figure Debbie Wasserman Shultz. Debbie was redistricted into a territory that’s includes a heavy Black majority. Race has dominated this primary contest on the Left as she finds herself running against four Black candidates headlined by Former U.S. Rep. Sheila Cherifilus-McCormick – who notably resigned from the current congress earlier this year just preceding an explosion vote due to her involvement in her company’s defrauding the federal government out of millions in funds which were determined by the House of Representatives to have largely been used to fund her congressional campaign. She faces her day in the court of law earlier next year on those charges. There’s also former Broward Mayor Dale Holness who narrowly lost to Cherfilus-McCormick previously, and Elijah Manley who many consider to be a favorite heading into today. Will DWS go down today? Losing a Democrat primary would be a heck of a way for one of the most powerful and influential Democrats in the country only a decade ago – to have her political career end...and also...watch for the performance of Cherfilus-McCormick. She represents chaos theory if she were to manage to pull out a victory. The other significant race on the left that has my attention today is the District 24 race. Seven Democrats have lined up in that congressional race that appears capable of breaking multiple ways. In particular, I have my eyes on the performance of State Senator Shevrin Jones. He’s an uber progressive political who’d been seen by the party as a rising star. Today will be a true test of whether he’s to be positioned in the future as the Left’s standard bearer in this state. On the right, the two most fascinating races are Districts 22 & 25. I’ve had more questions about the candidates in these races than any other congressional primaries I can recall. It’s a true tossup in both of these GOP primaries heading into today – as Republicans look to flip two additional seats in South Florida with these districts. Happy voting and we’ll see where our state stands in my top three takeaways tomorrow morning...

The Brian Mudd Show