Four Years Ago Compared to Today & 4 Weeks Away from Election Day – Top 3 Takeaways – October 6th, 2026

Takeaway #1: 4 Weeks away from Election Day

What a difference four years makes. Four years ago, today the United States of America had what were effectively open border policies, and a 7.7% 'Bidenflation rate and crime rates that were the highest in decades. We also were only four weeks away from what became a wave election result for Florida's Republicans, with Governor DeSantis winning his reelection bid by the largest margin of any Republican in our state's history on the back of his excellent handing of Covid-era policies. The election resulted in Palm Beach County voting for the entire Republican cabinet for the first time ever. It's the election cycle that seemingly cemented Florida's status as a state that had gone from being the ultimate swing state – to the ultimate red state, with a record number of Republicans elected top to bottom during that cycle as well. Four years later, the border is closed, the crime rate has fallen by a record rate, led by record numbers of deportations, the inflation rate is 3.4%, and...all of the polls suggest Democrats have a chance of winning a wave election result...and that Florida is in play. Which if Florida is in play – the better question nationally might be whether anything is safe for Republicans. There's a lot of irony when you think about the state of the country four years ago with Democrats in complete control, and how much better off we are today with the GOP majority in D.C. Logically who would want to turn the keys back over to the people who brought out the worst inflation in 40 years, open borders, rampant crime and defunding police among other things...but here we are. But what's more interesting than political polls is who actually show up to vote at the polls and while it's way too early to tell what exactly the partisan turnout might look like that could prove decisive just about everywhere – but certainly in Florida where the GOP has a 1.55 million voter majority. The first data point we have in Florida to track where we stand in partisan turnout compared to four years ago is who has voted through vote-by-mail ballots. In 2022 Democrats outvoted Republicans by seven points through vote by mail ballots. As we're four weeks away from Election Day, Democrats currently hold a 10.2% advantage with returned vote by mail ballots. It's early, the numbers are small, however what we do see is that in Florida Democrats are performing 3+ points better at this stage than four years ago today. Polls suggest independents (NPAs) will mostly break the Democrats' way – so Republican turnout is no doubt going to be key if Florida is going to retain its place as the country's ultimate red state at the end of this year's election cycle. I'll be paying particularly close attention to early voting trends once in person voting begins. In the era of Trump, Democrats have been far more likely to vote by mail with Republicans commonly dominating in person voting – both early and on Election Day.

Takeaway #2: About NPAs...

Close elections are almost always decided by nonpartisans. While it remains to be seen how many close elections we'll see, one early trend is that nonpartisans have been slightly less likely to vote by mail compared to four years ago. NPAs made up 19.4% of the vote four years ago, but are tracking at 18.8% of the vote today. So, to boil it down what we could be seeing is that Democrats have a slight enthusiasm edge compared to four years ago, based on those who've already returned votes – with NPAs perhaps being a little less likely to find candidates they want to vote for in either party. And on that note what these early returns also mean is that to the extent people pay attention to political polls, it's the likely voter samples matter far more than all other samples. If we do have a relatively lower turnout midterm election cycle, as it appears to currently be pacing in the early going, it's worth looking at differences between polls with likely voter samples rather than registered voter samples. And what we do see is a bit of dichotomy. For example, nationally the average RealClear Politics advantage for Democrats using only registered voter samples is 10%. However, when only likely voters are sampled, the result is currently 8%. So, what's the potential implication here? That there's little doubt Democrats are well positioned to win this year's midterm cycle nationally, and potentially with a wave election result similar to what we saw in 2018. However, what we're also seeing is that many independents polled say they favor Democrats over Republicans but may stay home and not vote this cycle. Another way of looking at this, is that it's likely...

Takeaway #3: Democrats are seeing poll results that are commonly about 2% inflated.

Now, if 2% doesn't sound all that significant – it literally could determine control of the senate. Of the nine U.S. Senate races that are considered to be in play by most prognosticators this cycle, Democrats current show leads in all nine! That would be a dire result for Republicans with the current 53-47 GOP majority flipping to 53-47 Democrat majority. But look a bit closer, and the adjusted polling perhaps would tell a different story. Here are Senate races polling at 2-points or less in favor of the Democrat right now: Iowa, Maine, Alaska. If Republicans were to win those three, they'd retain the Senate majority through a 50-50 tie and JD Vance serving as the tie-breaker in the Senate. What's more is that the Texas race is barely above 2-points at 2.8 with Ohio currently shown at 3.1 and Michigan at 3.5. Notably, what we saw in 2018's midterm elections may hold the key to what this election cycle holds. Despite an overall wave election result for Democrats nationally in 2018 – Republicans held control of the senate and actually added two seats somewhat surprisingly. One of those was Rick Scott's flip of Bill Nelson's seat in Florida. On that note consider this... The RealClear Politics polling average on Election Day in Florida's senate race in 2018 – was Bill Nelson winning by 2.4%. In the end, it was Rick Scott by 0.2%. The polls missed by 2.6%...incidentally just about the margin I'm currently perceiving them to be potentially overstating Democrat support currently. The deeper I dig the more similarities I see between this midterm election cycle and 2018's. Starting with the President of the United States. If that's the case, it's probably good news for Republicans in statewide offices, good for Democrats generally and nationally...but perhaps good enough for Republicans to just barely hang onto a senate majority. It's way too early to try to make that call, although if history repeats itself, that's a likely outcome. More to come...

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