The Blockade, The Early Returns & What Comes Next for Iran – Top 3 Takeaways – April 14th, 2026

Takeaway #1: What happened?

As promised by the Trump administration, 10 am Monday marked the start the Iranian blockade through the Strait of Hormuz. It was just prior to ten that two U.S. Destroyers – the USS Frank Petersen and USS Michael Murphy – which spent the weekend clearing mines (no reports have been made as to if they encountered any) to create new shipping lanes through the strait became the first U.S. vessels to navigate through the strait for the enforcement of the blockade As outlined by U.S. Central Command: The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports. The idea behind the operation is easy, the execution could prove to be interesting. Essentially the idea is to cripple Iran’s economy while secondarily inhibiting China’s, and to normalize traffic from non-Iranian sources through the Strait of Hormuz. 23% of Iran’s GDP is derived from exports that travel through the strait that wouldn’t be able to move during the blockade. To put the economic implications into perspective, consider this...during the pandemic lockdowns the decline in the U.S. economic top to bottom was just over 10%. During the Great Recession, it was 4.3%. In other words, the immediate impact of our actions to put pressure on Iran to cave to our demands (no nukes), was greater than twice the peak economic impact of pandemic lockdowns and five times the negative impact of the worst we felt during the Great Recession...in fact, what we effectively implemented on Iran’s economy is the equivalent of the Great Depression (the U.S. economy declined by about 26% from top to bottom). That will give you an idea about just how powerful the immediate impact of the blockade can be. The ambient benefit of this as mentioned, is the impact on our biggest nemesis in the process. Up to 90 percent of Iranian energy ends up with Chinese entities. Under a 25-year agreement struck in 2021, China has received almost all of Iran’s exported energy, at well below market rates, while China invests in Iranian infrastructure in return. Iran and Venezuela previously provided 49% of China’s oil supply. With those oil supplies now offline to China – it continues to inhibit the communist country from becoming militarily active as there’s not enough oil currently flowing to China to power their country and their vast military at the same time. Iran’s now blockaded energy is only about 4.5% of the world’s energy supply. It’s a number that can potentially be made up by other Persian Gulf states if they can safely export oil out of the Strait of Hormuz once again. The economics of the blockade make sense if it proves to be effective so about that...

Takeaway #2: What were the early returns?

Not much of a change. The crux of the issue is this...while the U.S. and Israel have sunk over 150 traditional Iranian naval ships – it's the unconventional naval warfare that’s far tricker to control militarily. The IRGC and its proxies in the region are said to have up to 5,000 speedboats adapted for rapid military action. The speed boats are equipped with mines, missiles and drones, and can be deployed at a moment’s notice. This is how Iran has been able to maintain operational control (or at least intimidation) of the strait with its traditional naval fleet having been “obliterated”. It was just 23 minutes into the blockade yesterday when President Trump said this: Iran’s Navy is laying at the bottom of the sea, completely obliterated - 158 ships. What we have not hit are their small number of, what they call, “fast attack ships,” because we did not consider them much of a threat. Warning: If any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED, using the same system of kill that we use against the drug dealers on boats at Sea. It is quick and brutal. P.S. 98.2% of Drugs coming into the U.S. by Ocean or Sea have STOPPED! So, while we wait, watch and will see if the speed boats dare to approach – what we’ve seen over the past day is meaningful change. Only eight ships made it through the strait yesterday, with about 13% of the normal cargo making it through the strait. That’s essentially in line with what we’ve seen since the onset of the ceasefire last week. However, what appears to be happening in real-time could be significant. It appears that in recent hours as

Aside from what amounts to a high stakes game of chicken being played (that’s resulted in most shipping companies waiting to see how this plays out before potentially becoming the ship that sees if the speed boats do come out to attack you) is the amount of risk that’s priced in to traveling through the strait. By 11 am yesterday – after an hour of the blockage, the insurance cost for a ship traveling through the Strait of Hormuz was priced at 2.5% of the insured cargo value...a rate that is less than half of the highest levels seen previously but that is still about 17x the normal rate. It’s hard for any of us to contextualize but imagine for a moment if you had to pay 17x more for auto insurance to drive your car today. It’s likely safe to say that most drivers would decide to leave their car in their driveway. And so that’s where we are with the strait. It’s a game of chicken between the U.S. and Iran over economics. It’s a game of chicken between shipping companies and IRGC directed “attack boats”. And so, we’ll wait to see who or what breaks these standoffs first. If you’re looking for a silver lining the S&P 500 was higher yesterday and while oil was too – the price closed at around $102. Higher than last Friday’s close but also well below the peak prices we’ve seen recently. There’s a general belief in the financial markets that there will be some kind of workable resolution sooner rather than later between the U.S. and Iran.

Takeaway #3: What’s the path forward from here?

It could become clearer following negotiations in D.C. today. Today is the day that Lebanese, Israeli and U.S. officials will get together to discuss a plan to reign in Hezbollah, Iran’s largest terror proxy. The Lebanese government doesn’t want Hezbollah basing in its country any more than Mexico’s government wants drug cartels effectively controlling whole territories. Israel wants the Lebanese government to contribute to combating Hezbollah. If today’s meeting creates some type of agreement, leading to Israel ending its attacks against Hezbollah, which Iran says is in violation of the ceasefire agreement – it could provide a path forward – perhaps an offramp for Iran to change its posture and to perhaps call off their attack ships, in exchange for the U.S. ending it’s blockade. That’s multiple if’s that would have to come together, but it is a glass half full view of the possible today. Stay tuned.

The Brian Mudd Show