How Low Can Stocks & Crypto Go? November 3rd, 2025
The partial government shutdown, Earnings and Inflation are in Focus
Bottom Line: My first rule of money... Never let your money and emotions cross paths. This story is a weekly wake-up call to show you the near-worst-case scenario for stocks and crypto. Why? So, you can plan your financial future with a cool head, not a racing pulse. The odds of a near-worst case outcome almost certainly won’t happen, however if your plan accounts for it – it can help you manage even the most trying markets like what we’ve experienced this year.
The US stock market is history’s ultimate wealth-building beast. Crypto? It’s minted millionaires from early believers. Fact: Over 90% of the time, investors who try to “time” the market end up poorer than if they just stuck to their original investments. This is about dodging that trap.
Here’s how the big three indexes are faring in 2025 so far:
- DOW: +12% (slightly higher last week)
- S&P 500: +17% (slightly higher last week)
- Nasdaq: +23% (+1% last week)
The partial government shutdown, now in its 34th day, looks likely to exceed 2019’s record 35-day shutdown. You wouldn’t know it based upon the performance of the financial markets. Stocks moved to record highs yet again last week as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, corporate earnings continued to come in stronger than expected, and with President Trump’s Asia swing producing positive results including a trade deal with China resulting in increased U.S. commerce and a lower tariff rate.
As for earnings...
Through Friday, 64% of companies reported earnings. The average increase in earnings year-over-year is 10.7%, a number pacing ahead of the 7.9% increase in earnings expected coming into the reporting season. Aside from earnings, and shutdown related news this week, the ADP and BLS jobs numbers will be in focus.
As for cryptos...
Here’s a look at where they stand.
- Bitcoin: -2% last week,+17% YTD
- Ether: -5% last week, +15% YTD
- BitwiseETF (Top 10 cryptos): flat, last week +19% YTD
I can’t value cryptos because they have no inherent value. Stocks, though? They’ve got bones. Let’s break down the S&P 500:
- Current P/E: 31.73
- Historic Avg. P/E: 16.18
Translation: On earnings alone, the maximum downside risk is a 49% drop from here—similar to a week ago as prices and fundamentals improved similarly. The market is historically expensive as it’s priced at the highest multiple of the current bull market cycle.
So, What’s Your Move?
If a 49% dip wouldn’t derail your life, you’re probably golden. If it would? Time to call a pro and build a plan that doesn’t leave you sweating bullets—or making mistakes.