What’s Up w/Stocks, Cryptos, Gold & Silver? Brian Mudd’s Market Update May 4th, 2026
Iran, earnings and the Federal Reserve remain in focus this week.
Bottom Line: My first rule of money... Never let your money and emotions cross paths. This story is a weekly wake-up call to show you the near-worst-case scenario for stocks and crypto. Why? So, you can plan your financial future with a cool head, not a racing pulse. The odds of a near-worst case outcome almost certainly won’t happen, however if your plan accounts for it – it can help you manage even the most trying markets like what we’ve experienced this year.
The US stock market is history’s ultimate wealth-building beast. Crypto? It’s minted millionaires from early believers. Fact: Over 90% of the time, investors who try to “time” the market end up poorer than if they just stuck to their original investments. This is about dodging that trap.
Here’s how the big three indexes have fared in 2026:
- DOW: +2% (+>1% last week)
- S&P 500: +5% (+1% last week)
- Nasdaq: +8% (+1% last week)
Meanwhile, crypto currencies were flat to higher last week, though digital currencies are still sitting on double-digit declines year-to-date for the second consecutive year. Many institutional investors have reduced or eliminated positions as the thesis that Bitcoin is “digital gold” and Ether is “digital silver”, during times of uncertainty has failed.
- Bitcoin: -11% 2026 (+3% last week)
- Ether: -23% in 2026 (+1 last week)
- BitwiseETF (Top 10 cryptos): -17% in 2026 (+1% last week)
As for precious metals – the best performing asset class over the prior couple of years – both were losers over the past week though they remain the best performers year-to-date.
- Gold: +8% 2026 (-1% last week)
- Silver: +8% in 2026 (+3% last week)
No resolution in Iran? No interest rate cuts coming, no problem for stocks and cryptocurrencies yet again last week. The combination of the historic AI-led tech boom and outstanding earnings proved more powerful that geopolitics and rising oil prices yet again over the past week. This led to yet another series of record high closes taking place for stocks last week – with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing out April and the start of May with record highs. Cryptos, which have commonly tracked with tech stocks again since the onset of the Iran war, benefited from the risk on trade as well – though double-digit losses for the year persist. Meanwhile it was a mixed bag with precious metals – though gold and silver remain the top performers year-to-date and over the prior couple of years as well.
Early on during the Iran war oil prices depicted. Investors are still mindful, however the market has been less sensitive to oil price swings over the past couple of weeks as consumer spending, including discretionary spending, has remained strong in the face of higher gas prices which was something noted by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell who delivered what’s like his last address as Fed chair last Wednesday as nominee Kevin Warsh cleared a critical senate committee vote last week and is poised for confirmation before the senate. Powell, however, has chosen to remain as a Federal Reserve governor after May 15th, which is his prerogative as his senate confirmed term runs until 2028. This will at least temporarily deny President Trump the ability to have appointed a majority of fed governors. The bottom line is that additional interest rate cuts are off the table for the next several months at a minimum.
As for earnings...
As of Friday, 63% of companies reported for the first quarter of the year. The results have been particularly strong with earnings having grown at a staggering 27% year-over-year, the largest gain in earnings dating back to 2021 when companies began to rebound from COVID-era lockdowns. It’s proving to be a historically great quarterly reporting period. This has allowed investors to look past the current economic headwinds.
Now for valuation calculations... Here’s a look at where they stand. I can’t value cryptos because they have no inherent value. Stocks, though? They have businesses backing them. Let’s break down the S&P 500:
- Current P/E: 31.08
- Historic Avg. P/E: 16.21
Translation: On earnings alone, the maximum downside risk is a 48% drop from here, 1% higher than a week ago, as stock prices rose a bit faster than fundamentals. The market has equaled its risk adjusted highs, as it’s priced near the highest multiple of the current bull market cycle.
So, What’s Your Move?
If a 48% dip wouldn’t derail your life, you’re probably golden. If it would? Time to call a pro and build a plan that doesn’t leave you sweating bullets—or making mistakes.