From Peace to Opportunity What a Week It Could Be – Top 3 Takeaways – May 11th, 2026
Takeaway #1: Peace in the unlikeliest places?
It’s a mixed bag of foreign policy news...but if you’re looking for some good news to begin your week, I’ve got it, and it’s coming from perhaps two of the most unlikely places. If you heard that a war was coming to an end – you'd immediately think the news would have been about development out of Iran. But obviously with President Trump rejecting Iran’s counteroffer over the weekend that wasn’t it, rather it was from Russia. Specifically, on Saturday, three key developments took place in the 4+ year Russia-Ukraine war. The first development was that President Trump requested a 3-day ceasefire between the two countries along with a prisoner exchange. The second significant development was that both sides agreed to the ceasefire which runs through today...and the third significant development was that when asked by reporters about the war... Russia’s Vladimir Putin said: I think that the matter is coming to an end. Now trusting what Vladimir Putin has to say is akin to trusting what the “well Imamers” in Iran have to say...because after all – if you can’t trust Islamic terrorists to keep their word, who can you trust, right? But it’s worth noting that Putin hasn’t said anything so potentially declarative as this since the onset of the war and whether we’re talking about the mullahs in Iran or the Impaler in Russia, actions speak louder than words given the credibility concerns which is why this is so huge. So other than an end to bloodshed what exactly would an end to the Russia-Ukraine war do if peace were soon to become a reality? A stable end to the war would equal...
Takeaway #2: Cheaper energy and food costs, lower overall inflation and higher production of goods...
Resulting in increased consumer confidence around the world. According to a recent Federal Reserve analysis, the potential benefit of an end to the war would include GDP increasing by approximately 1% while inflation could fall by approximately 1%. Those numbers on the surface might not sound huge – but they are. A 1% increase in GDP for the United States is equal to about $320 billion with the potential to reduce the unemployment by a half of a percent leading to the creation of about 850,000 additional jobs. In other words...it’s a pretty big thing economically independent of an end to bloodshed and greater stability. So, about that...what could we see if there were an end to both wars simultaneously? I ran some models on this stuff this weekend and it looked like this... Oil averaging $62 per barrel (lower than before the Iran war), GDP growing by an additional 1.8%, or an additional $576 billion to the U.S. economy, and an additional 1.5+ million new jobs. What would all of that look like? A near record low unemployment rate, lowest gas prices since President Trump’s first term, with the lowest inflation rate, since President Trump’s term in the 1% range. That would open the door for massive interest rate cuts further improving affordability in the economy. It would obviously be great news in every way. It’s a lot that would need to come together, but notably; there is actually what would appear to be realistic potential for this to come together. Pray for peace...if the stars aligned this could be a huge week for it with Russia and Iran. And speaking of the economy and jobs...
Takeaway #3: Jobs, jobs, jobs...
First there was the ADP Private Sector Jobs report last Wednesday, then there was the government's Bureau of Labor Statistics report on Friday. They both said the same thing...in April, despite the Iran war and higher gas prices, despite the age of AI and fears of job loss being upon us...something highly unexpected played out instead. Job gains that were the best since January of last year as President Trump was just getting settled into office essentially doubling expectations. In total, 115,000 jobs were added in April, with wage gains totaling 3.6% year-over-year – which is higher than the rate of inflation at just over 3%. This helps illustrate how the consumer economy has continued to get by despite the highest gas prices in 3.5 years over the past couple of months. But here’s the most exciting thing... It’s the biggest storyline with the most significant implications. While many tech-related jobs have been cut due to AI innovations, those jobs have been more than offset by gains in infrastructure to support the AI-boom. This includes job gains with construction firms, utility companies, technology firms, etc. It remains to be seen if this trend will hold over the longer term, however the early returns are exciting and the implications are many. The history of U.S. innovation has shown that gains in technological achievement have led to dislocations in certain jobs, however with significant net additional jobs over the longer term. You’ll likely remember similar fears of job losses due to historic disruptions to businesses during the 90’s dot com boom during the advent of the consumer internet age. In the end there were and are tens of millions more jobs than existed before in many industries and with companies that hadn’t even been dreamed up before. As we’re in the early stages of AI adaptation within the United States – we might be seeing those dynamics play out already. It’s not a guarantee – this works out nearly as similarly over the short term – the AI disruption we’re in for is going to be faster and more encompassing than what we’ve experienced before – however our country’s history tell us there will be more jobs and opportunity in the end – if not potentially even sooner. There’s a lot to be excited for in our economy and world today – especially if we see the end to not just one but two wars rather quickly.