An Iranian Oasis or The Real Deal? – Top 3 Takeaways – August 3rd, 2026
Takeaway #1: An Oasis?
The year was... Malcom X’s daughter was arrested for the attempted murder of Louis Farrakahn. The Republican Party gained control of Congress for the first time in 40 years. The LA Rams moved to St. Louis. The Oklahoma City bombing took place. Mickey Mantle died, Jerry Garcia too – and Cal Ripken Jr. beat Lou Gehrig’s Iron Man streak for most consecutive Major League Baseball games played. OJ Simpson was acquitted in Nicole Brown Simpson’s murder...and a wannbee Beetle’s band released what became a popular song eventually topped the rock charts for ten weeks...Wonderwall. The band was of course Oasis and the year was...1995. 1995 Doesn’t have anything to do with my top takeaway today...nor does Oasis so specifically – just that in reading President Trump’s truth Sunday morning about Iran... I couldn’t help but to think of his announcement being the mirage of an oasis (it seemed appropriate for the middle eastern desert and all you know? Here’s what Trump Truthed late Saturday night: The U.S.A. is locked and loaded and ready to go against the Islamic Republic of Iran, at levels of Military Terror, Strength, and Power not seen since World War II. Despite this, we have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to. This would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat. Based on this request, I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL. The Country of Israel joins me in this commitment. Get to work, everybody, and get it DONE. Thank you for your attention to this matter! On a scale of 1-10 – what’s your level of confidence in this “perimeters of a deal” becoming an actual deal that provides a conclusion to the conflict? Now, with that said... Fun fact. Did you know that there are actually...
Takeaway: #2 4,850 Oases?
No kidding! Heaven forbid, if you ever do find yourself lost in the desert it may just be the case that what you think you see on the horizon is a legitimate oasis...although there actually are thousands of instances where it actually would be an oasis. Related fun fact number 2 – Asia contains most oases – 2,700 – with most of the rest in Africa – 1,300. There are only 17.5% of oases in the other five continents combined. So, the point is this...while an oasis is often documented as a mirage – they are very real too. In fact, get this...fun fact number 3... most of the oases that exist outside of Asia and Africa can be found in... Iran – which contains 494. It’s actually the country with best odds of randomly stumbling into one in the desert. So there just may be a chance. Iran’s state news Fars agency reported that President Trump’s outlined demands amount to a “wish list”. It’s not surprising that Iran isn’t singing the same tune as President Trump, but the question is whether this time, this announcement, is potentially different? It’s unlikely many will believe this is going anywhere until and unless it actually does, but there are at least constructive signs. As we’ve discussed time and again – if energy prices were low, what’s happening with Iran wouldn’t be a big deal to most Americans. So the key is simply the restoration of energy moving. On Friday there were 10 ships that successfully traversed the Strait of Hormuz. On Saturday there were 30...That’s something. And that something should meaningfully help lower the price of oil once again – if only temporarily. But speaking of what might be different and as to whether the President’s announcement potentially has legs...
Takeaway: #3 Iran’s desperate
That was the word over the weekend from former CENTCOM Vice Admiral Robert Harward who told Fox News that the Iranian regime was reaching the desperation point amid the blockade of their oil and with successful U.S. strikes effectively eliminating most of Iran’s military manufacturing capabilities. Something most of us discount in the day-to-day is how successful our military may be in the continuation of strikes that we’ve seen. It’s in one ear and out the other kind of stuff to hear about strikes day after day, however in reality each one of those successful military runs degrades Iran’s ability to continue as it has been. It takes money to fight a war. It takes manufacturing capability to continue to put up a fight. The only thing that’s kept Iran in the game up to this point has been their proven ability to strike ships in the Strait of Hormuz and with their terror proxy the Houthis in the Red Sea. If that ability is close to no longer existing, Iran’s estimated damage from U.S. strikes now totals nearly $300 billion - Iran’s total economy is only about $450 billion per year. At the same time Iran’s currency has been devalued by 35% (imagine a 35% inflation rate in under six months! - the peak of ‘Biden flation was 9%). The fact is Iran can’t continue to fund ongoing resistance the way that they have been. And the growing economic crisis can lead to what Mark Levin identified as the Iranian regime’s biggest fear over the weekend...The people. It’s hard for people without weapons to rise up – but a combination of their resistance along with an economic collapse amid a military that may be on the brink, maybe, just maybe could be a recipe for a reprieve? Iran wants to play this out past the midterms at a minimum to hurt President Trump politically as much as possible. But do they have the ability to do such a thing? As I’ve said right along...price is truth – so pay attention to the price of WTI crude – it’ll tell you most of the story in the day-to-day from here. The history of this conflict, and the inability to trust 12th-Imaming terrorists with any kind of a deal suggests this oasis is a mirage. However, the underlying factors suggest it just may be possible that what’s on the horizon is one of the 494 Iranian oases.