You Might Not Feel It, Yet – But We're Winning the Iran War – Top 3 Takeaways – September 28th, 2026
Takeaway #1: We're winning
Question for you. Does it feel like we're winning the Iran war? Given that President Trump's RealClear Politics approval rating on Iran is only 33% - the answer for most is probably not. But the reference point for most Americans seemingly, essentially, comes down to what we're paying for gas. Every time you go to the pump and the price for what you pay goes up – that probably feels like a loss. But here's the thing, that's not an insignificant thing. We are winning. How do I know this? Through some analysis and through a lot of posturing by various leaders over the weekend...but also an understanding of the big picture. What was your thought process of what took place with the meeting surrounding the UN General Assembly and President Trump's meeting with King Chicom – Xi Jinping? There were substantive things that took place, like for example, the Greenland Security deal with the Great Danes (like almost literally as one of the facilities the U.S. will quickly make use of with our expanded military presence on the Island was used by the Greenland military for their dog patrol – you can't make that stuff up). There was also the punting of Chinese trade war stuff until January. But otherwise, news reports and most takes were similar to this characterization depicted by NBC: Trump, Xi wrap state visit centered on spectacle over substance. Here are the top takeaways. Here's a clue...NBC News doesn't have one. I don't know what's more hilarious – that NBC and related GSS News accounts think that they know the extent of what was discussed and perhaps even negotiated behind the scenes by President Trump and Xi Jinping, or that people who don't know things but report stuff continue to maintain jobs these days. Kudos to them – that is a talent of sorts. As always, the most important thing to remember when it comes China, Russia or Iran is what?
Takeaway #2: That they're aligned. They are the modern Axis.
And the most influential and important player in this Axis is whom? China of course. As I've said for over a decade, it's critical to remember that China isn't just China, that it's Russia, that it's Iran, that it's North Korea with a Little Rocket Man, that it's been Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua too. So, think about the health of China's Axis network for a minute. Ukraine's success this year at striking deep into Russia has produced huge results and has created an energy crisis within a country that runs its economy on oil and vodka. Over the past month plus approximately 60% of Russia's refining capacity has been knocked offline, while month-over-month Russia's oil exports have fallen by 32%. Imagine for a moment if something like that was happening over here. And here's the thing, nearly half of Russia's government spending happens due to energy export revenues. Russia has entered an energy crisis that's prompting an economic crisis. Speaking of which there's Iran. Iran's current inflation rate is 84% as the country's currency is working its way towards being worthless. Since the Iran war their oil exports have fallen by between 86 – 100 percent based on the day and whether Iran is able to sneak oil through the Strait or through other means. The country is currently collapsing. Then there's Venezuela which had been aligned with China but since Trump made Maduro go missing – no longer is, with the energy being produced coming to the U.S. as opposed to China and to Cuba which is the next country to assess as Cuba is of course on the brink of collapsing itself. The only countries in the Chinese Axis that aren't in crisis or that are no longer aligned are North Korea and Nicaragua. And all of this disruption has led to China significantly slowing down its oil imports – largely out of necessity. China's oil imports fell by 32% by June – to the lowest levels since 2017 – and most recently imports are 40% lower. China simply doesn't have access to the energy it used to – which is the ultimate negotiating chip for President Trump. China isn't in a position to be able to operate militarily if it were to attempt to get aggressive, while still operating the needs within the country domestically. Think about how much weaker China's position currently is than it was prior to Trump's second term. When President Trump and the administration say that "we hold all of the cards" this is what he really means. China's Axis has been kneecapped, it's getting worse for all of them, and effectively the price we've paid is about 50% more at the pump with an economy that's growing rather remarkably. So let me ask you again. Who's winning?
Takeaway #3: It's now much clearer, isn't it?
And this takes us to some of what may be inferred that really went down with Xi's visit to D.C. Our goals are currently aligned on Russia and Iran. China wants an end to the wars too – and the ability to get the energy they need. Take a look at what was said heading into and over the weekend. Iran's president said that Iran wanted to go back to the MOU from June along with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran even said publicly that they'll agree to allow nuclear inspectors into the country. After President Trump rejected these terms, Iran on Sunday said they were still waiting for official word on their offer – holding open hope that the Trump will take the offer. What would suddenly have brought this about? Think about this in the context of what really took place with Xi. If anything, the message from Xi to Iran's regime would be to get something done with us...not that help from the Chicoms is on the way. So, think about this – especially with the midterm elections only five weeks away. Why wouldn't President Trump do the MOU to at least provide temporary relief that might help him and the GOP politically? As a reminder, oil prices came all of the way down to $68 per barrel during the MOU originally – essentially the price for oil before the war. It's not because he wants Republicans to get waxed, which if the election were today, is most likely what we'd see. It's because he believes there's an even better deal, and even better opportunity for the U.S. as the Axis cracks and their economies crumble. As I've occasionally said from the onset of the war – if we were able to get energy prices down the average American likely wouldn't even care about what happens with Iran (or Russia or China). So, on that note consider this... Here's the most recent three-week pace for ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – 14 ships per day, 15 ships per day, 19 ships per day (though Saturday). There were 20 ships – that had made the trek through the Strait within the prior 24 hours at the time I put this together – indicating that the trend for traffic remains higher. This also corresponds directly to the recent peak in energy prices. At the point where traffic began to rise, oil prices began to fall. What's the biggest change and what's behind the recent growth? Saudi Arabian oil. Since the peak disruption with the east-west pipeline – Saudi Arabia's daily output is up 2.2 million barrels per day – which is about 43% below prewar levels and recovering. All of Iran's leverage surrounds keeping the Strait closed and energy prices higher. Iran is running out of money to fund and equip their terror proxies – Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis – in addition to the IRGC. And if the U.S. has turned the corner in improving traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – the situation will only get incrementally better for us, while it continues to be much worse for the mullahs in Iran. These are the reasons why Iran now is desperate to do the deal they signed off on originally...and why President Trump isn't quick to take it. We're winning and in a much bigger way than is being portrayed, or that is appreciated with the crumbling of the Axis powers and the thwarting of what at worst could be World War III.