Voter Registration Trends Are Overwhelmingly the GOP’s Friend – Top 3 Takeaways – July 20th, 2026

Takeaway #1: The Trend Remains the GOP’s friend

History suggests Republicans should get waxed in November. The impact of the unpopular Iran war suggests Republicans could get waxed in November. One of the more compelling historical trends heading into election cycles however, the voter registration trend remains overwhelmingly the GOP’s friend. There are 20 states that currently update partisan voter registration changes at least somewhat regularly. Of course, Florida is one of those states, and the Florida Division of Elections updates that information monthly. And what I’ve tracked and shared with you in advance of elections over the years is that at least in our state, there’s been no more consistent trend than the Republican advance with voter registrations at the Democrat’s expense. For example, in only one month over the previous five and a half years have Democrats outperformed Republicans in Florida by way of voter registration...and that most certainly wasn’t last month. In a midterm election year, what we’d expect to see are rising voter registrations for all political parties with the strongest of the two major political parties in a given state leading the way. However, with the most recent data in for Florida showing the state’s voter registration changes through the first half of the year, what we’ve seen is that Republicans have performed as you’d expect adding nearly 60,000 newly registered voters to rolls across the state through the first half of the year. We’ve seen similar though smaller gains for NPA’s and minor parties too. Democrats though...not only hasn’t the party been able to add net new voters despite the cycle’s tailwinds – there are over 4,000 fewer registered Democrats in Florida today than there were on January 1st. Going back to the earliest partisan voter record keeping in 1970’s - this is the first time in any federal election cycle Democrats have lost net voters in Florida through the first half of the year. This tells a powerful story – especially with little time left for would-be Democrat voters to register prior to the August primaries which are only a month away. The trend in Florida, despite the historical and news driven headwinds, very much remain the GOP’s friend...and here’s the thing...

Takeaway: #2 The trend goes well beyond Florida

Out of the 20 states that have updated partisan voter registration information recently...how many do you think favor Democrats year-to-date? Have your number in mind? Here’s the answer...0. In 19 of the 20 states Republicans have outperformed Democrats by way of voter registration and in Delaware – the other state – voter rolls are basically flat for both parties. Republicans have not only made net gains in those 19 reporting states this year...but what’s more – similar to the story in Florida – Democrats have lost registered voters through the first half of this year. This tells you that the story is much bigger than Florida, which many now view as the ultimate red state as opposed to a potential bellwether state. But as I’ve said for over twenty years – as Florida goes this country will go as well (and as I used to say – one day South Florida will save this country from itself – which proved true) – there are signs that remains the case with Florida leading the way but with other states following the trendline to. Notably the 19 states with known GOP progress this year come in every shape, size and partisan lean. Those 19 states include blue states: California, Colorado, Maine, Maryland, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon and Rhode Island. The include red states: Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, West Virginia and Wyoming. And importantly, there are also these swing states: Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. The total net gain for Republicans relative to Democrats across those 19 states equaled approximately 290,000 voters this year. If a similar trend were effectively the case in the states that don’t have partisan voter registrations – we'd be talking about Republicans netting over a half million voters through the first half of this year. So why given history and current news headwinds for Republicans would this be the case?

Takeaway: #3 Democrats remain just about as unpopular as ever

To be clear the average American isn’t looking at either political party currently with strong favorability...however Democrats, as a party, continue to trail Republicans in overall party favorability. The continued move toward the Commie-Mandani Left as a party has only produced increased skepticism with your typical voter. The bottom line is this...by way of the RealClear Politics averages across all metrics, President Trump’s policies (especially the Iran war) and the GOP’s performance generally isn’t popular – however the average American is closer in views to Trump and the GOP – than they are with the average Democrat in this country which continues to tack harder Left by the year. It remains the case that if the midterm elections were held today Democrats would fare better than Republicans in this cycle. However, the difference is this is a cycle that typically would have Democrats setup for a wave election and that wouldn’t be the result if elections were to be held today. The window is narrowing for Trump and Republicans to get it together heading into November; however, Democrats continue to present Republicans with an enormous favor by being a party that’s so far Left of reality that for many reasonably minded voters – they're disqualifying. In further evaluating what’s taken place – Democrats appear to have potentially misplayed their hand with their election wins last year. As discussed at the time, Democrats realized that in order for their new brand of open borders defund DHS and Homeland Security and related policies to play out politically broadly...the candidates they needed to run needed to come across as non-threating and even boring. Just like Joe Biden was supposed to be this reasonable establishment guy – who implemented the most radical left-wing policies this country has seen...Dems opted for seemingly normal non-threating milk toasty white women in elections. And it worked for the other Mike to get elected in New Jersey and for the Spanberger in Virginia. It also helped get candidates like Emily Gregory through in Florida’s House District 87 race in the special election early this year. However now that voters have seen how radical these milk toasty white women can be...the jig is up for that strategy for voters who’ve paid attention. That could come back to bite Democrats in close races in November. Had Democrats held that strategy back for this year’s elections as opposed to just a few states last year – they probably would be set for a bigger and better election result than whatever it is that will be. Democrats remain as unpopular as ever and that’s because the party is as radical as it’s been since they were the party who led the Confederacy.

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