Updated...Tracking Time – The race to be Florida's next Governor
Bottom Line: We're now under five weeks away from Florida's primaries which means that we're starting to get down to crunch time. Floridians are notoriously late to engaging the primary process and with high percentages of undecided voters in big races – this year appears to be no exception.
Both parties have had wide-open races this year and I've never seen a high-profile race so wide-open on both sides this late into the cycle in our state. Starting with the Democrats here's where we stand with an average of the most recent accredited polling (using only the three most recent polls – changes vs a week ago).
Graham: 24% (+1%)
Levine: 20% (-1%)
Greene: 17% (+5%)
Gillum: 11% (+2%)
King: 7% (+2%)
Others/Undecided: 21%
Storylines from last week have carried over to today's update which includes some post-debate polling. The biggest change is that the debate appears to have helped more voters identify with a candidate as we have 9% fewer undecided voters week over week. But the biggest gains remain with the momentum candidate among Democrats – Jeff Greene. We also continue to see that Jeff Greene's gains continue to equal Philip Levine's pain. It's evident that Greene and Levine are competing over many of the same voters and that's continued to open a lane for Gwen Graham who added to her lead this week. Still, with more than 1 in 5 voters undecided and the leader pulling support from fewer than a quarter of voters – there's room for anyone in this race if they manage to capture momentum between now and Election Day.
On the Republican side of the isle the momentum candidate remains Ron DeSantis. Using the three most recent accredited polls that've polled on all candidates it's clear Ron DeSantis has an advantage.
DeSantis: 40% (-2%)
Putnam: 29% (+1)
Other candidates: 9%
Undecided: 22%
If Putnam's looking for a silver lining it's that he gained a point over a week ago and DeSantis is off a couple. Still, an 11-point lead with just over a month to go has to feel pretty good if you're Ron DeSantis. Importantly, 22% are still undecided which still means we could see wild swings in the final month based on the break of those late deciders.
Until next time...