The Political Meteor Strike & Next Steps for the GOP – Top 3 Takeaways – November 5th, 2026

Takeaway #1: The political meteor strike

"Four years ago, we saw a massive political wave in only one state. The state of Florida. It was a Republican wave that did not materialize really anywhere else in the country. Last night we witnessed, to call it a wave I don't think would be fully accurate. It's the political equivalent of a meteor strike that went all around the United States, blue states, red states, everything in between. And the one state that was able to hold the line and withstand that is right here in the free state of Florida. But let's be clear about what happened last night. This is close to an extinction level event for Republicans in many parts of the country. Of the ten largest states in this union only Florida will have Republican control of their state. If you look at our chief rival, in a healthy sense, Texas, over my lifetime Texas has been the crown jewel of Republican politics. They lost everything. Let's be clear. That's going to hurt not just for the next two years, but that's something that can reverberate for the next decade or more. And if the Republican Party doesn't have Texas as the anchor than we're not going to be viable nationally going forward. We have to be clear eyed that this is probably the worst case scenario for a midterm election outcome. So the question is why did Florida hold up? Why were we able to hold the line? And I think the answer is that we've built up a record of achievement, we've earned trust from a number of our voters, that even in the worst situation that you can imagine politically, we were able to hold the line". Those are not my words. Those are the words of Governor DeSantis. It just so happened that I was beginning work on the outline for my takeaways for you today when the governor addressed Tuesday's election results with that message. It just so happened that one of my takeaways was going to be specifically about Governor DeSantis – and what makes him and thus our state different. With a related pointed message for local and state Republicans...

Takeaway #2: It's about policy

Yesterday I mentioned to you that the only surprising thing to me about Tuesday's election results was the outcome of Amendment 3. I'd foreshowed analytically the blue wave. I'd foreshadowed analytically that Florida's statewide races would be close races. And along with my endorsement of Amendment 3 – I'd most recently covered its possibilities of passing on October 16th, when I said this: The outcome of the property tax amendment is as much of a tossup election at the statewide level as anything I’ve seen since 2018 though I am cautiously optimistic that with what appears to be fewer than half of undecided voters needing to break in favor of it perhaps it ekes across the needed 60% threshold line. Notably, every entity that could possibly attempt to demonize Amendment 3 to keep status quo property taxation in place, has already thrown the kitchen sink at it while doing so and I’ve yet to see a poll, even the least favorable ones, where more than 31% of people say they’re voting no. That we really haven’t seen meaningful movement towards those committed to voting no is a potential sign that the anti-Amendment 3 contingent is hitting a ceiling with those who they can convince to vote against their own interests. In the end, that proved true as Amendment 3 passed by just under 2%. And why was it the case that with seemingly every local government entity saying Amendment 3 would be the end to everything and with Florida's Democrat Party endorsing a "No" vote on Amendment 3 – that even a county like Palm Beach County which voted for Democrats by double digits in statewide races – still voted at a 60% rate for Amendment 3? It's about policy. Politics isn't nearly as complicated as people make it out to be. The bottom line is this.

Takeaway #3: Good policy is good politics

A couple of questions for you. Is any policy that leads to paying higher prices good policy in your view? If the answer is no, then President Trump's tariff policy was/is bad policy. As I brought you in my analysis earlier this year – 1.3%-1.7% of the inflation rate over the past year has been directly attributable to Trump's tariff policies. With an inflation rate of 3.7% most recently – there's the potential that inflation would only be the normal (and Federal Reserve target inflation rate) of 2% without them...and that's factoring in higher energy prices resulting from the Iran war. Which about that. If policy that leads to higher prices is bad policy in your view – well – it's also no surprise that President Trump's approval rating on Iran is only 33%. The cost of energy increases related mostly to the Iran war (with Russia-Ukraine also factoring in), has been 1.1%. So do some quick math and you'll see that President Trump's decisions on those two issues have added 2.4%-2.8% to the cost of living. What that means is that without those things the inflation rate would be 0.9%-1.3%. How much better do you think Tuesday's election would have been for Republicans if inflation were only 1% with incomes growing at greater than 3%? The bottom line is that the top two issues Trump and Republicans down ballot won on two years ago were 1) affordability and 2) immigration. President Trump has done a historically great job on immigration, however his policies actually made the top issue worse – even if only temporally. As I've mentioned at varying points when discussing tariffs and Iran policy...it may be the case that history is kind to these decisions. If there's follow through to the American manufacturing reassurance attributable to President Trump's tariff policies – maybe it will prove to be good policy in the end. If indeed there's a positive ending to the Iranian conflict that leads to Iran being unable to conduct nuclear war – Trump is actually right that what we've paid in higher energy costs is a small price to pay. However, if you win an election on affordability, a laser focus on reducing costs is good policy, and whatever the result might have been Tuesday (which given historical midterm forces still would likely have been a Democrat win), it wouldn't have been the political meteor strike that Governor DeSantis described. And that takes me to my final related takeaway. The reason why Florida held the line is precisely why DeSantis said. He's led with the best policies in our country consistently. It's a lesson that needs to be taken to heart by every Republican politician. Especially since Governor DeSantis will soon no longer be on the scene to lead on these things (although yesterday's speech was almost certainly a prelude to a 2028 presidential campaign). DeSantis barely won his election in 2018. Did he govern like some kind of milk toast moderate enacting policy he viewed might be politically safe to play? Heck no! A true Reagan conservative – get this – he actually believed that conservative politics are in the best interest of you and me. And therefore, he was willing to fight every major fight that needed to be fought to enact great conservative polices from the elimination of Common Core and the implementation of the BEST standards in education. Battling the entrenched agricultural interests to meaningfully implement the Everglades Restoration plan and begin to end the destructive Lake O' discharges. Taking the lead on COVID policy, recognizing the medical establishment's hijacking of liberty and related B.S. policies for what it was and opening the state when the rest of the country was laughing at Florida's policies in the news. Battling the homosexual agenda, DEI policies and even Disney specifically – and always winning. Parental rights in education, followed by universal school choice...and lastly providing the leadership to set the stage for Amendment 3 – which would have been the total elimination of property taxes if not for the watering down of the Amendment by legislators who weren't and aren't the leaders that DeSantis is. Which is the closing message. What's needed going forward, starting with local officials - Republicans who actually believe in conservative policies and never give up to implement them. When you look at county commissioners, or legislators, or congressman – and you can barely tell the difference between the most liberal and theoretically most conservative officials when it comes to policy... That's how you lose elections. That's how you lose communities. And that's also how we get stuck with bad polices.

1290 WJNO

The Latest News in 4 Minutes