Updated...Tracking Time – The race to be Florida's next Governor
Bottom Line: We're now a month away from Florida's primaries which means that we're starting to get down to crunch time. Floridians are notoriously late to engaging the primary process and with high percentages of undecided voters in big races – this year appears to be no exception.
Both parties have had wide-open races this year and I've never seen a high-profile race so wide-open on both sides this late into the cycle in our state. Starting with the Democrats here's where we stand with an average of the most recent accredited polling (using only the three most recent polls – changes vs a week ago).
Graham: 24% (flat)
Levine: 17% (-3%)
Greene: 13% (-4%)
Gillum: 10% (-1%)
King: 7% (flat)
Others/Undecided: 29%
There are several new storylines this week. First, despite not gaining in the polls over a week ago, Gwen Graham is now a clear front-runner in this race. She's been leading for about a month now (basically about the time that Jeff Greene revved up his campaign) but her lead had been within general margins of error. At seven points – she has her biggest lead just as we're getting down to crunch time under a month from the election. Second, Jeff Greene's momentum has stalled but not before he took enough support away from Philip Levine to seriously imperil Levine's campaign. And that leads to the final big takeaway. There are more voters up for grabs than the voters who've pledged support for the front-runner – so anything can happen here, however... If anyone other than Gwen Graham is to win this race – Levine or Greene will have to find a way to demonstrate that there is more that is different between them than just Miami Beach vs Palm Beach.
On the Republican side of the isle the news continued to be generally good for Ron DeSantis though the race has narrowed a bit over last week.
DeSantis: 38% (-2%)
Putnam: 32% (+1)
Other candidates: 6%
Undecided: 24%
The "but" here is that all polling took place prior to any potential benefit from President Trump's rally for Ron DeSantis on Tuesday. On the bright side for Adam Putnam, he's been able to cut into the lead for two consecutive weeks and there are still no shortage of undecided voters.
It's also worth pointing out that some folks are actually already voting. Ballots requested by mail have already been sent – so from here on out – polling becomes more relevant because some people aren't just pledging support, some have actually already voted.
Until next time...