Tracking Time – An update on Florida’s biggest races
Bottom Line: We’re now under six weeks before the general election. Florida’s two biggest races this year are exact opposites of one another. A year ago, just about everyone thought we’d have a Nelson vs Scott match-up for the US Senate. A race featuring two of the biggest names in Florida politics. Conversely, a year ago, few Floridians were even familiar with the names Gillum and DeSantis let alone of the belief that they’d be their party nominees. First up Florida’s senate race:
We’ve had five polls roll in within the past week. Here’s the current average.
- Nelson: 47%
- Scott: 44%
- Other 2%
- Undecided: 7%
Before I specially discuss the senate race this week I’ll start with a catch-all. Many media outlets and politicos were excited about a particular poll that was released earlier this week. The Q poll (Quinnipiac University). If by chance this polling was correct, it’s hard to find cliffs in Florida to jump off, but now would be about the time that hard core Republicans should consider looking for them. The polling was that bad for Republicans. For those that’d prefer not to be jumping off of the closest thing we have to cliffs – there's this to consider.
In the Senate race Nelson’s polling 5 points better in that poll than the next highest poll this entire cycle. Likewise, in the Governor's race Gillum is polling 5 points higher than the next highest poll for him and 4 points better than any other polls this cycle. In other words – all other polling is incorrect, or Quinnipiac’s sampling was way off base. Incidentally, Quinnipiac didn‘t publish the ideological splits of those surveyed so it’s impossible to tell.
So, about the Senate race... The numbers this week are skewed by the Q poll in particular but of the five polls Nelson did generally have an edge. Nelson led in three, Scott in one and one was tied. For this reason and given the trends in midterms towards the party out of power – what appears to have been an ever so slight Scott advantage this week may well have shifted to a slight advantage for Nelson at the moment with many undecided voters left for such a close race.
Like the senate race we’ve had five new polls roll in over the past week in the governor's race and they’re still all pointed in the same direction. An advantage for Andrew Gillum. Here’s an average of the most recent polling.
- Gillum: 48%
- DeSantis: 42%
- Other: 2%
- Undecided: 8%
Once again, the Q poll skews the average a bit but it’s been crystal clear that Ron DeSantis will have to win over a solid majority of undecided voters in this race to win and there’s still no evidence of that happening yet. For DeSantis who’s been spending heavy on TV – you have to be concerned at this point. This race is winnable still for him but the margin for error is near non-existent in this race. Gillum remains the clear front-runner this week.
Until next week...