2020 Update – President Trump surges to new high with likely voters
Bottom Line: It’s too early to begin regular 2020 updates but President Trump’s just released new record polling among likely voters warrants a mention. With a media that remains overwhelmingly hostile towards President Trump,including 92% negative coverage according to the Media Research Center...most might be surprised to hear that President Trump’s best ever polling among likely voters was just released by Rasmussen. According to yesterday’s update, President Trump has reached 53% approval, against 45% disapproval to reach a new all-time best approval rating.
For those in the real world this might not be terribly surprising. We’ve experienced the best economic growth since 2005. Record low unemployment rates for all minority groups and the lowest overall unemployment rate since 2001. The stock market has reached record highs and is within reach of hitting new ones currently. The overall quality of life for the average American at every age has never been better. This and he’s just stubborn enough to fight for what he promised on the campaign trail on issues like illegal immigration, the border and healthcare reform.
I could go on, but do I need to?
In a historical context this isn’t unusual timing for a President to see an uptick in approval ratings. For example, President’s Clinton and Obama both saw steadily rising approval ratings in their third year after reaching lows for their administrations in year two. But what is unusual, in fact potentially unprecedented in the polling age dating back to the 1930’s, is a new record being set in year three. The prominent reason is that President’s prior to Trump have always enjoyed a “honeymoon effect”coming into office. Typically, the highest approval rating a President has at any point is during their first month in office prior to series policy decisions being factored in that potentially alienate large blocks of voters. There are a couple of exceptions, for example President Bush’s handling of 9/11 initially led to approval ratings exceeding 90%, but it’s required that type of catalyst. President Trump never enjoyed that type of honeymoon effect. His approval rating among likely voters within his first month only averaged 45% as the news media hammered his every move, Russian collusion rumors were already running rampant and he didn’t have a record to encourage more support.
What we’re seeing here very well might be history in the making. To give you an idea of what a 53% approval rating means historically in terms of re-election odds...19 months out it places President Trump’s reelection odds at 73%. That’s 8% higher than the average president at this stage in their Presidency.