2020 Update - President Trump’s re-election odds
Bottom Line: Let’s start here. The odds are President Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. Why?
- 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win
Something that’s often overlooked is what it would take for someone who voted for the incumbent president previously not to vote for them again. It has happened of course. George H.W. Bush’s “read my lips no new taxes” promise that he broke led to Ross Perot running, splitting the vote and allowing Bill Clinton to win. Or in the case of Jimmy Carter,failing at pretty much everything,allowing Ronald Regan to win. The 65% is based on nearly two-thirds of all incumbent Presidents who’ve run for re-election winning. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. Now that we’re within 18 months, I can begin tracking President Trump’s reelection odds-based upon history and approval ratings. Here’s where we stand as of today.
- 61% based on average polling
- 68% based on likely voters
Any way you look at it, President Trump is the current favorite to win the 2020 Presidential Election. There are a couple of takeaways we can glean from the difference between the average of all polling compared to likely voters. Those already likely to vote are the most likely to support President Trump, while those who aren’t currently engaged are slightly less likely to break his way. To the extent that the Democrat’s opposition candidate matters, a candidate that can bring new voters into the fold who aren’t already planning to vote, currently provides the strongest opportunity for Democrats next year.