Q&A of the Day –Why Biden’s the worst candidate for Democrats in 2020 – Part 2
Bottom Line: If you’ve been following my logic, by now you know the following...
- President Trump’s likely to win re-election based on history & current factors
- Trump performs best with the most politically engaged and worst with the least engaged and likely to vote
- Joe Biden isn’t likely to activate new voters
Now about those head to head polls showing Biden’s the best against Trump. I’ll walk you back to four years ago yesterday. May 27th of 2015. In Quinnipiac's polling, Hillary Clinton led literally every GOP challenger by a minimum of four points. The Republican that theoretically could make it closest would have been Marco Rubio. The Republican that performed the worst against Hillary? You guessed it. Donald Trump. Literally out of the entire field of 2016 Republicans no one polled worse than Trump against Clinton. She was showing a 50%-32% advantage. What does all of this tell you about the relevance of head-to-head polling at this stage of the process? So back to the point made at the start of the Fox News segment that brought this conversation about... Why is it that Donald Trump spends the most time focusing on Joe Biden? I suspect he’s aware of pretty much everything I’m sharing with you and is hoping to get that match up. With most Democrats at the professional level simply desirous of taking out Trump by any means necessary, the polling showing Biden as theoretically the strongest of the field – is too tempting not to get behind. Potentially falling right into a trap of their own making.
Polling isn’t useless. You just have to know how to use it. Most people, including the pollsters themselves, aren’t analytical enough in their approach to put the pieces together. With the Democrats beginning debates over the next month the process will start to move quickly from here through Election Day.