2020 Reality Check – Most Democratic voters aren’t paying attention
Bottom Line: From the onset of the Democrat's 2020 Presidential race, I’ve suggested that the only polls that matter are the ones that determine who’s in the debates. Now that we’re there, and they did matter – just ask Miramar’s Wayne Messam. But here’s the thing. Even then, even now, other than being on that stage they don’t mean much of anything. The reason? Next to no Democrats are paying any attention to the candidates. This is evidenced in AP’s just completed survey work that shows...
- 22% of registered Democrats know a lot about the candidates
- 35% say they’ve paying attention to the campaigns
There you go. And btw, it’s not just Democrats. I’ve mentioned right along that Joe Biden reminds me very much of 2020’s Jeb Bush. And Pete Buttigieg reminds me of someone like Herman Cain (no they have nothing in common but rather by what they represent in the campaign). It’s just life and reality. The first votes aren’t even going to be cast for more than six months. Most people, even registered Democrats, aren’t like the ravenous news media clamoring for as much 2020 action as possible, one for ratings but two in the hope of ousting the president that more than 90% of those in news media loathe (based on party affiliation and donation records from 2016). Truth is, aside from the debate stage, the only other reason the polls matter is to the extent donors care about them and decide that certain candidates are lost causes not worth “investing in”. For those on the stage the key to having a shot in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina is not running out of money before you get there. Most won’t make it that far.
Recently I profiled the average Democrat based on preferences within the rank and file voters. The candidate that appeared to have the broadest appeal and be within the mainstream of the typical Democrats was Kamala Harris. She’s averaging just 7% in the polls. In other words, because I’m engaged, I know what the average Democrat wants more than they do at this point. It’s just the nature of the beast.