2020 Update – The state of the 2020 Democrats
Bottom Line: Soon Democrats will have their second round of debates and we’re liable to see different trends emerge but for now we have a good idea of where the dust settled after the initial debates, where we are in this process and now some surprises about who the second choice candidates are for voters. This tells a potentially important story.
Despite a field of 24 candidates, it’s become increasingly clear in recent weeks there are only five who are solidly viable as candidates right now. Polling isn’t as fragmented as it was initially after the first debates and even candidates like Gabbard and Yang, who had their best polling to date initially after the debates have seen their small pops in the polls evaporate. Only five candidates are above 4% at this point and they are...
- Joe Biden
- Bernie Sanders
- Elisabeth Warren
- Kamala Harris
- Pete Buttigieg
It’s clear that the first debate placed Elisabeth Warren and Kamala Harris solidly in the upper tier of candidates. What’s interesting as we await the second-round debates is who the second choice for president is with supporters of the top five candidates. Without a clear break away front-runner, second choice candidates can make or break primaries and according to Morning Consult’s most recent sampling here’s the most common second choice candidate.
- Biden supporters: Bernie Sanders
- Sanders supporters: Joe Biden
- Warren supporters: Kamala Harris
- Harris supporters: Elisabeth Warren
- Buttigieg supporters: Kamala Harris
Kamala Harris is the most popular second choice candidate despite polling fourth currently. That’s worth watching as we advance in the process because she could well be the best positioned to capitalize on the thinning of the field.