Florida Voter Registration Update
Bottom Line: A common theme I've discussed entering the 2020 cycle has been perception vs reality. For example, with greater than 90% of news coverage (according to the Media Research Center) of President Trump’s administration being negative, you might think he’s hugely unpopular. The reality is that most recently his average approval ratings are near the highs for his administration. Here at home in Florida, there might be a different version of a similar thing. The monthly voter registration totals are in for Florida from June and continue to show a trend that might surprise some.
What’s changed in the past month? Quite a bit actually... Pulling the latest Florida voter registration totals we see the following year over year changes
- DEM:–20,712
- GOP:–2,701
- Minor:+16,547
- NPA:+15,878
This continues to paint a clear picture confirming longer term trends in Florida. Save one caveat. For the first time in 2019, there are fewer Republican registered voters than a year ago. Still, Democrats hemorrhaged many more – losing more than 18,000 more voters than Republicans over the past month. Not registering to any political party continues to be the largest growing block of voters in the state while minor parties are the fastest growing segment. Democrats now hold their lowest registration advantage in Florida’s history. The current breakout of registered voters looks like this...
- DEM:36.9%
- GOP:35.2%
Democrats held a 2.5% advantage on Election Day 2016. That’s now down to a 1.7% advantage. Historically Florida’s Democrats haven’t reflected the most progressive wing of the party. The party’s continued leftward bend likely is impacting would be Democrats from registering in the party. TBC...