Florida Voter Registration Update – September 2019
Bottom Line: A common theme I've discussed entering the 2020 cycle has been perception vs reality. For example, with greater than 90% of news coverage (according to the Media Research Center) of President Trump’s administration being negative, you might think he’s hugely unpopular. The reality is that most recently his average approval ratings are closer to the highs for his administration than the lows of 2017. Here at home in Florida, there might be a different version of a similar thing. The monthly voter registration totals are in for Florida from July and continue to show a trend that might surprise some.
What’s changed in the past month? Quite a bit actually... Pulling the latest Florida voter registration totals we see the following year over year changes
- DEM: –7,593
- GOP: +5,882
- Minor: +20,029
- NPA: +28,431
This continues to paint a clear picture confirming longer term trends in Florida. Huge increases in NPA’s and minor parties with smaller but meaningful increases in Republican voter registration. Also, the longer-term trend of Democrat defections continues to occur. This is even more notable when you consider that these are the changes over a year ago when we were heading into the hotly contested Florida primaries in advance of the general election cycle.
Democrats remain near their lowest registration advantage in Florida’s history. The current breakout of registered voters looks like this...
- DEM: 36.9%
- GOP: 35.1%
Democrats held a 2.5% advantage on Election Day 2016. That’s down to a 1.8% advantage currently. Historically Florida’s Democrats haven’t reflected the most progressive wing of the party. The party’s continued leftward bend likely is impacting would be Democrats from registering in the party. TBC...