What’s really up with the economy? Inside the September ADP Report
Bottom Line: Here we are on back of a couple of days in which the stock market has suffered triple digit declines. That’s made it easy for many in the media to once again jump back on recession band wagon. There’s only one problem with that narrative. We’re not. But lord knows it isn’t for a lack of trying to make it happen. Prior to two days ago we were within 2% of a record high in the stock market. Stocks appreciated throughout the third quarter and are around 15% higher for the year. During the gains and when we’ve been on the precise of new highs have you heard news media talk about how good the economy is and how great the appreciation in stocks has been this year? Of course not. It’s just ignored. Then when you get a significant down day or two – it's game on with recession paloozza, which is the only break in the reporting from impeachment paloozza you’ll get. But here’s the thing. The stock market isn’t posting 15% gains this year because we’re in a recession. We also aren’t adding manufacturing and construction jobs if we’re in a recession. That’s right – we added jobs in manufacturing and construction last month along with just about every other sector.
The ADP private sector jobs report once again debunks fake news. Here's what happened in September.
- Total jobs added: 135,000
By business size...
- Small businesses: +30,000
- Medium sized businesses: +39,000
- Large businesses: +67,000
We’re still seeing across the board growth including with small businesses which simply doesn’t happen in a recession. Small businesses are the most economically sensitive group only adding jobs based on demand.
The top industries for hiring were...
- #1 Education and healthcare
- #2 Trade, transportation and utilities
- #3 Professional and business services
Now, 135,000 new jobs isn’t a great number but we’re also near record low unemployment rates. Businesses can’t hire people who aren’t applying for jobs. There’s a big difference between companies not hiring vs those who didn’t hire more because they’re having a hard time recruiting new talent.