Florida Voter Registration Update – October 2019
Bottom Line: A common theme I've discussed entering the 2020 cycle has been perception vs reality. Follow the news reporting for a day and you might think the country in is some sort crisis.In reality we have the best economy providing the most opportunity in American history. Here at home in Florida, there might be a different version of a similar thing. The monthly voter registration totals are in for Florida from September and continue to show a trend that might surprise some.
Pulling the latest Florida voter registration totals we see the following year over year changes.
- DEM: +10,731
- GOP: +23,084
- Minor: +26,572
- NPA: +50,065
First thing’s first. This is a huge increase in voter registration year over year for a non-election year. We’ve added over 110k new voters outside of an election cycle. I’ve never seen anything like this previously. It bodes well for engagement in Florida heading into 2020. Now, the gains clearly aren’t equitable. We continue to see the longer-term trends in Florida playing out here with NPA’s and Minor party candidates performing best and Democrats the worst, though it’s worth noting that this is the first time all year Democrats have posted year-over-year gains in voter registration. It’s also worth pointing out that these changes reflect voters registered in time to participate in last year’s midterm elections. In terms of the breakout of registered voters overall in Florida here’s the lay of the land.
- DEM: 36.9%
- GOP: 35.1%
- Minor: +1%
- NPA: +26.9%
Democrats held a 2.5% advantage on Election Day 2016. That’s down to a 1.8% advantage currently. Historically Florida’s Democrats haven’t reflected the most progressive wing of the party. The party’s continued leftward bend likely is impacting would be Democrats from registering in the party. TBC...