The real unemployment rate – November 2019
Bottom Line: There’s a lot more to the employment report than just a couple of headline numbers. The last several months has proved the value of not overreacting to any one employment report. Especially when we’re already at the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years. Weaker reports might mean that hiring is really slacking off, or it might mean that the labor market is so tight it’s hard for employers to hire when they’re looking to do so. Friday’s employment report, the first of the 4th quarter, of 2019 presented a picture of a strong economy that’s continuing to deliverer unprecedented opportunity.
First, the headline stuff.
- Unemployment rate 3.6% - up .1%
- +128,000 jobs
- Positive revisions from past months totaling +95,000 jobs!
Top industries for hiring:
- #1 Food services
- #2 Professional and business services
- #3 Social assistance
Important notes:
- The impact of the GM strike was a negative 42,000 jobs that will positively reverse in next month’s report
- Factoring in the extensive positive revisions, the real number was a remarkable +223k jobs!
Now for the real unemployment rate once underemployed, long-term unemployed and marginally attached people are accounted for:
- Actual: 7% down from 7.5% in 2018
Key takeaways:
1. The real-unemployment rate continues to pace near record low levels – Lowest since December of 2000.
2. Those unaccounted for in the base unemployment rate include 6.9 million Americans (1.3 million long-term unemployed, 4.4 million are underemployed & 1.2 million are marginally attached to the workforce).
3. The labor participation rate continues to improve with more people joining the workforce with unprecedented opportunity