President Trump’s re-election odds & the state of the Democrat’s race
Bottom Line: The odds are President Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. Why?
- 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win
That becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. The 65% is based on nearly two-thirds of all incumbent Presidents who’ve run for re-election winning. There is a clear incumbency advantage. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. Which don’t look now but is only a year away. I’m able to track President Trump’s reelection odds-based upon history and approval ratings. Here’s where we stand as of today.
- 52% based on average polling (based on an average approval rating of 44%)
- 58% based on likely voters (based on a likely voter approval rating of 46%)
President Trump remains the odds-on favorite to win reelection regardless of whom the Democrats nominate. To the extent that the challenger can impact the race, that provides the road map for Democrats. Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who can most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming election. Speaking of which here’s how their race looks this week.
Current average polling with the changes since last week.
- Biden: 30% (+4)
- Warren: 19% (-2)
- Sanders: 19% (+1)
- Buttigieg: 8% (flat)
- Harris: 4% (-1)
We had a lot of movement over the past week but none of it factors in this week’s debate. Question is will that matter? What’s interesting is what a good week Biden had independent of whatever will or won’t be based on the debate. He not only tacked on four points, two of those came at the expense of his closest competitor, Elisabeth Warren. What’s more is that with Bernie picking up another point this week he’s now tied with Warren behind Biden. Bernie hasn’t polled this high since May. And that now takes me to the next point. With Sanders and Warren representing overt socialism in the Democratic party and retaining 38% support. That appears to demonstrate just how radically to the left the party has moved.
Otherwise... There’s no indication that Deval Patrick is registering as yet. We still don’t know if Bloomberg is in, he’s still not officially, and we lost Wayne Messam this week, though nationally no one would notice Until next week.