Recap – The 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Bottom Line: Eighteen named storms, six hurricanes, three major hurricanes. That’s the breakout from the just concluded 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. On the surface that seems like an above average hurricane season. On the other hand, there’s the information I brought you via a Q&A last week. First, is it the case that we had an above average hurricane season or did do we just know more about hurricanes than we used to? Here’s the food for thought from the recent Q&A on the topic...
Based on pre-1967 satellite technology it appears nine of the storms wouldn’t have been detected.
Context is key and literally half of this year’s hurricane season wouldn’t have even existed to us prior to 1967. In fact, at least one and potentially as many as four of the named storms wouldn’t have been detected as recently as four years ago. In fact, in speaking with NOAA directly, they confirmed that technology is allowing for increased detection and earlier detection – in addition to greater reliability in forecasting. Unfortunately, politics is often in play these days and the increase in named storms due to improved technology and detection is commonly characterized under man made climate change political interests.
As for what is measurable damage, the news despite Dorian’s catastrophe damage for the northern Bahamas, was far better than average. The Atlantic hurricane season caused $13.9 billion in damage, mostly coming from Dorian’s impact. That’s down from $50 billion last year and $220 billion during the record setting damage in 2017 that featured Irma, Harvey and Maria. That’s great news for those not in Dorian’s path, the insurance market and ultimately all of us in hurricane prone areas carrying insurance. Adjusted for inflation the average cost of damage during hurricane season historically is $21.6 billion. Another way of looking at the hurricane season this year, despite above average activity, the destruction caused was about 36% less than the average year.