President Trump’s re-election odds & the state of the Democrat’s race
Bottom Line: The odds are President Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. Why?
- 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win
That becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. The 65% is based on nearly two-thirds of all incumbent Presidents who’ve run for re-election winning. There is a clear incumbency advantage. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. Which don’t look now but is only a year away. I’m able to track President Trump’s reelection odds-based upon history and approval ratings. Here’s where we stand as of today.
- 57% based on average polling (based on an average approval rating of 46%)
- 64% based on likely voters (based on a likely voter approval rating of 48%)
President Trump remains the odds-on favorite to win reelection regardless of whom the Democrats nominate. To the extent that the challenger can impact the race, that provides the road map for Democrats. Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who can most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming election. Speaking of which here’s how their race looks this week.
Current average polling with the changes since the previous update.
- Biden: 28% (-1)
- Sanders: 19% (+1)
- Warren: 15% (flat)
- Buttigieg: 8% (-1)
- Bloomberg: 5% (-1)
New Year, one less candidate to kick it off in the Democrat’s race for President as Julian Castro existed the race this week. His exit barely impacts the race as he was only averaging 1.2% support most recently, but it does serve to cull the field to thirteen candidates a month in advance of actual votes being cast in Iowa. It’s safe to say that nowhere near 13 credible candidates exist – don't be surprised to see additional defections leading up to Iowa as money dries up and candidates drop out to attempt to save face. Attention has been drawn to the fact that only one minority candidate remains in the race and he, Cory Booker, isn’t even polling at 3%. To me it’s an indication that perhaps identity politics isn’t working even among Democrats. We should generally support the best candidates who’d represent our interests and country rather than attempt to exploit superficial differences.
The bigger storyline as we’re a month away from showtime, is the highly unusual trend of top tier candidates dropping support to lessor performing candidates. Generally, at this stage in the process, your top tier candidates consolidate support from the lessor performers. Instead your lower tier candidates are getting second and third looks and pulling away support from the fringes of the top contenders. This speaks to potential weakness in this field of candidates. More to come...