Trump 2, Obama 0 – the brewing 2020 Red wave
Bottom Line: The other race that’s taking place in the primary season is that of the incumbent president. It’s a given that President Trump will be the Republican nominee for President. That was true of Obama eight years ago and generally is the case of any incumbent president. The last time there was even a serious conversation about the President of the United States winning their party’s nomination was 1980 when Ted Kennedy made a serious run at Jimmy Carter until the revelations of Chappaquiddick did in his candidacy. Given that is a given President’s Obama and Trump would win their party nominations, it’s rare that turnout is high for the essentially unchallenged incumbent.In fact, it’s generally an afterthought and while it’s being treated that way in the news media currently – it shouldn’t be. There’s a bigger story being told.
- Iowa 2012 – Obama: 25,000 votes
- Iowa 2020 – Trump: 32,000 votes
Iowa is a state President Obama won in both 2008 and 2012. President Trump won it in 2016. It’s a swing state – so this isn’t a case of the voter base being skewed in favor of one party or another. The bottom line in Iowa, President Trump’s turnout was 28% better than Obama’s.Now for what happened in New Hampshire.
- New Hampshire 2012 – Obama:49,000 votes
- New Hampshire 2020 – Trump:119,000 votes
Not only is the turnout story even more impressive for President Trump in New Hampshire, so is the storyline. Trump didn’t win New Hampshire in 2016 – in fact, the state hasn’t gone for a Republican since George W. Bush in 2000– yet President Trump’s turnout was 143% higher than Obama’s. There’s a story being told here. After two states, President Trump’s turnout is more than double Obama’s in two states, that on balance were more favorable to Obama. I’ve mentioned data tea leaves I’ve been reading since last fall suggesting something historic is brewing for November’s election cycle. Now that I have more than tea leaves, actual votes, it’s evident there’s an undercurrent brewing that could turn political pundits and Washington on its head this year. To be continued...