President Trump’s re-election odds & the state of the Democrat’s race
Bottom Line: The odds are President Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. Why?
- 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win
That becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. The 65% is based on nearly two-thirds of all incumbent Presidents who’ve run for re-election winning. There is a clear incumbency advantage. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. Which don’t look now but is only a year away. I’m able to track President Trump’s reelection odds-based upon history and approval ratings. Here’s where we stand as of today.
- 60% based on average polling (based on an average approval rating of 47%)
- 73% based on likely voters (based on a likely voter approval rating of 50%)
President Trump remains the odds-on favorite to win reelection regardless of whom the Democrats nominate. To the extent that the challenger can impact the race, that provides the road map for Democrats. Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who can most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming election. Speaking of which here’s how their race looks this week.
Current average polling with the changes since the previous update.
- Sanders: 28% (+4)
- Biden: 18% (-1)
- Bloomberg: 16% (+2%)
- Warren: 12% (flat)
- Buttigieg: 10% (-1)
These numbers reflect where national sentiment was at least prior to the debate.It illustrates why the knives came out for Bloomberg by the others and why Warren felt it was a potential make or break debate for her. So now the questions...Did Elisabeth Warren’s mass offensive win her new supporter’s? Did Bloomberg’s mass defensive on the stage dent his perceived momentum? Is Joe Biden already out of this race and just hasn’t realized it? It’s important to note,that the importance of debates is often overstated. Most voters already support a particular candidate. The small group of undecided voters aren’t certain to decide on a particular candidate based on a particular debate performance – or even if they do, in a way that’s copesetic with the media/talking heads narratives.
Make no mistake. The race is about delegates and the current delegate scorecard shows Buttigieg in the lead followed by Sanders, Warren, Klobuchar and Biden. Though no candidate is pacing enough delegates through the first two states to win the nomination prior to the convention.With Nevada set to vote this weekend here’s the next oddity. We still won’t know about one of the perceived front-runners – Bloomberg because he still won’t be on the ballot.There’s only one observation I feel certain about at this point. No candidate will come out of Nevada pacing more than half of all available pledged delegates through the first three states.