Q&A of the Day – A Vaccine isn’t a cure for viruses
Each day I’ll feature a listener question that’s been submitted by one of these methods.
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Today’s entry: @brianmuddradioyou heard it today, first vaccine tests start and could deliver a potential shot in 12-18 months. So, can we please start a conversation everyone is refusing to have: Are we shutting down our country for 12-18 months or opening up to let the inevitable happen?
Bottom Line: I hear your point/concern about how long we’ll go on in this semi-state of reality. And we’ve been conditioned to think vaccines represent solutions but it’s important that we operate with real information and pragmatism. That starts with knowing vaccines aren’t cures. There aren’t cures for viruses. Viruses mutate and the best we can do and hope for is to contain the threat, condition our immune systems to effectively combat viruses if we contract them (which is what a vaccine is designed to do). This topic, and our current reality, is why I’ve informationally put together at least annual stories around flu season regarding the effectiveness (or most commonly, the lack thereof), of flu shots.
I believe you should also have the facts to consider when making decisions, especially regarding your health. Unfortunately, many in the medical establishment along with useful instruments in news media, advance the narrative that you should simply get a flu shot without any additional information. That’s a disservice in my view because it denies the average person the education of what a virus is, what it does and the vaccine’s role in attempting to combat it. A vaccine is simply a way to attempt to train your immune system to deal with contagion and generally they’re not a good match for the virus’s they’re targeting because of the mutation of viruses. The updated outlook from the CDC shows this year’s flu vaccine is just 45% effective and that’s actually pretty good in comparison to most years. The historic average rate is just 40% effective. How many people would feel “secure” from COVID-19 if we had a vaccine that was 45% effective?
Relative to the concerns about simply “shutting down” for up to 18 months... Here’s what we have working in our favor over time. First, this thing hit in flu season which ends in April. Seasonality should help. Second, viruses can mutate significantly in as few as 15 days. During the first six weeks of observations by the WHO this one hadn’t - only mutating by .1% but it’s possible. While there are no guarantees that a meaningful mutation would be beneficial, the odds would be in that favor. This has proven to be the deadliest of the seven strains of coronavirus on scale. The odds would be around 86% in favor of mutation being less severe than the current strain. Third, in addition to not having a vaccine, there also aren’t known therapeutics. Development of medicines/treatments to better manage symptoms will help going forward. Four, yes the development of a vaccine as an important tool in the toolkit for the most vulnerable. Be mindful that that the reason it’s a crisis is due to its disproportionate impact on the elderly – especially with pre-existing conditions. If the average outcome that young, healthy people have experienced was the norm, we’d probably view this as an especially bad flu season of sorts rather than a public health crisis. The problem in the here and now is that it kills 5% of those over 60 who get it including 15% of those over 80.
We’re taking the steps we’re taking to protect our seniors; else we’d likely lose millions. They’d benefit most from a vaccine, as is the case with the traditional flu shot, which is why so much emphasis is being placed on it. Anything can happen and we won’t know until we get there but if you’re looking for a silver lining, the threat the virus represents to us today, is likely near the peak of the threat it will end up being to us. If any and especially if all of those four potential tailwinds occur as they logically can/will we’ll be better off generally.