President Trump’s reelection odds & the state of the Presidential race
Bottom Line: The odds are President Donald Trump will be reelected in 2020. Why?
- 65% of Presidents who run for reelection win
That becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. There is a clear incumbency advantage. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. A Presidential reelection bid is first and foremost a referendum on the incumbent President. History has shown that if people are generally satisfied with the performance of the President – they'll vote to stay with him. That necessarily makes the relevance of the challenger a secondary consideration. In this story I've taken the historical approval ratings of incumbent Presidents running for reelection and tracked the outcomes of those elections. In so doing I’m able to project historical reelection odds for President Trump based on his current ratings.
Here’s where we stand as of today.
- 40% based on average polling (based on an average approval rating of 43%)
- 48% based on likely voters (based on a likely voter approval rating of 45%)
It’s been two weeks since I’ve provided an update and the news hasn’t been favorable for President Trump over that time. He’s off three points with all samples and among likely voters which has taken him from being the favorite to win regardless of sample to an underdog at this stage of the game. There’s no one specific thing to point to for the general decline but being mired in the middle of the pandemic with record high unemployment probably has something to do with it. His presidency and prospects are almost entirely based on convincing voters that he helped create a record economy before the pandemic and you can trust him to do it again. There’s a good chance that message connects but for the sake of his reelection prospects it has to.
Throughout the course of President Trump’s administration, he’s consistently performed best with likely voters. This remains the case as we’re little more than five months away from Election Day. If we focus in on only likely voters, we see his advantage improve meaningfully making him the solid favorite. Inside of six months we typically see higher levels of engagement in the political process by voters that aren’t as ordinarily as engaged in the news of the day. As that’s happening, we’re seeing a narrowing of the polls, regardless of samples.Two weeks ago that was working in the president’s favor. Today it isn’t.
Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who could most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming election. During the Democrat’s nominating process Joe Biden consistently appealed to the fewest new voters. Biden’s nomination would appear to play into President Trump’s best hand, though for the first time in this cycle using history as a guide he’s the favorite. Biden made his first appearance in public in two months this week when he visited a VA cemetery on Memorial Day...complete with a mask – which President Trump hasn’t been spotted doing in public.
We’re in an election year unlike any other in the mist of the pandemic, there’s no telling what might happen during the final five months of this race but for now, based on all available data and historical context, Joe Biden is a slight favorite at the moment. To be continued...