June's Hurricane History & a preview of the 2020 season
Bottom Line: Hurricane season is officially here and with two named storms already in the books, it’s set to be another active one.Last year's hurricane season was above average with 18 named storms, six more than the norm. Fortunately for us in Florida, no hurricanes made their way to us – despite the close call with Dorian. According to NOAA, here’s what we should expect based on the midpoint of their guidance:
- 16 named storms
- 8 hurricanes, about half of which are expected to be major (cat 3 or above)
Were that to happen we’d have another above average hurricane season. As we enter the “official” start of hurricane season, we’ve already had our first named storms for the sixth consecutive year prior to June. With two May named storms, this hurricane season most resembles 1887 and 2012, the only two years in which two May storms developed since tracking began in 1851. In both of those years 19 storms formed.
Going back to the onset of record keeping for tropical storms and hurricanes here's how much activity has taken place in June:
- 5% of all tropical storms
- 3% of all hurricanes
Something to keep in mind is that June storms generally form closer to the US and are more likely to make landfall. While just 3% of all hurricanes have formed in June, 7% of all landfalls in the US have occurred during the month.
Here's the good news... 2% of the storms that form occur prior to hurricane season...So technically we're 2% of the way through hurricane season as it begins... Only 98% to go!