2020 Election Series: The Anatomy of a Swing State
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Bottom Line: We’re now under twelve weeks away from Election Day on November 3rd which means it’s time to start tracking the activity in swing states. Back for 2020 it’s time for the anatomy of a swing state. Each cycle I analyze states that were decided by ten points or less in the previous presidential election cycle. These represent potential swing states that are in play for both parties heading into each cycle. It’s a fluid number from cycle to cycle which reflects changes in the electorate overtime. In 2016 there were 16 states decided by fewer than ten points. President Trump won 30 states in 2016 including nine of the sixteen swing states which proved key to his victory. That’s where this series begins this year. President Trump won the following swing states in 2016:
- Arizona
- Florida
- Georgia
- Iowa
- Michigan
- North Carolina
- Ohio
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
Those are the states key to President Trump’s reelection bid. Notably, President Trump doesn’t have to retain all of those states to win reelection. His margin of victory, with 306 electoral votes, was 36 more than what’s needed to win. Here’s a map of the country with the electoral votes represented by each state based on the 2016 election outcomes: https://www.270towin.com/maps/270towin-election-night-map
Depending on the size of the states, President Trump could lose between one to three of these states and still win the election without picking up any states he didn’t carry in 2016. Speaking of which here are the states Joe Biden will need to retain in addition to adding at least two of the Trump states if he’s to win this year.
These as the seven swing states carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016:
- Colorado
- Maine
- Minnesota
- Nevada
- New Hampshire
- New Mexico
- Virginia
While those states remain swing states, the last time a Republican won any of those states was in 2004 when George W. Bush carried Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia. These sixteen states are where the Presidential Election will be won. Next week we’ll take a first look at polling in these states compared to the same date in 2016 for an apples to apples look at how they’re pacing.