Kamala Harris & the (lack of) impact of Vice-Presidential candidates
Bottom Line: I’ll start this story by saying that if ever there was a time a Vice-Presidential pick mattered most – it's potentially this one. Any objective observer of Joe Biden has questions regarding his ability to preside over our country effectively for the next four years. But this story isn’t about Joe’s health or even Kamala Harris specifically. It’s about how generally irrelevant any Vice-Presidential candidates are to winning Presidential elections. For all of the pomp and circumstance surrounding selections I’ve never seen historical evidence of Americans casting votes for the bottom of the ticket. This race will be no different. The most telling way to illustrate the point is to look at the outcome of Presidential elections and the performance in the home state of the Vice-Presidential candidates themselves. Going back to 2000 here’s what what’s happened.
2016:
- Mike Pence Indiana: Won by Trump in 2016 but also Romney in 2012 – No change
- Tim Kaine Virginia: Won by Clinton in 2016 but also by Obama in 2012 – No change
2012:
- Joe Biden Delaware: Won by Obama in 2012 & 2008 but also won by John Kerry in 2004 – No change
- Paul Ryan Wisconsin: Won by Obama in 2012 – Failed to win home state
2008:
- Sarah Palin Alaska: Won by McCain in 2008 but also Bush in 2004 – No change
2004:
- Dick Cheney Wyoming: Won by Bush in 2004 & 2000 but also by Bob Dole in 1996 – No change
- John Edwards North Carolina – Failed to win home state
2000:
- Forget the Vice-Presidential candidate – Al Gore, the Presidential candidate himself, failed to carry his home state of Tennessee.
History tells a very consistent story. There’s no evidence of a catalyst shift in the direction of the polls or the outcomes in even a running mate’s home state. In fact, ironically, in the case of Paul Ryan’s failure to deliver his home state in 2012 and John Edwards in 2004 – it's even more ironic because Obama was able to carry North Carolina in 2008 and Donald Trump won Wisconsin in 2016. No running mate has had any evidenced impact where it matters most – the Electoral College – in modern political history. That will remain the case this year as well as Biden will win California with or without Harris and there’s no evidence, she plays even within the prism with which she was cast. Joe Biden carried more of the black vote than Kamala Harris during the Democrat primaries – even when she was still in the race.