2020 Momentum – trends now favor Republicans
Bottom Line: As a political wonk and analyst there are numerous data points I study regularly all times of the year and regardless of cycle. When they’re noteworthy I bring the storylines to your attention. Gallup just published their monthly party ID results for July’s survey and the results are certainly noteworthy as we head down the homestretch of the 2020 election cycle. Gallup surveys monthly on party ID and have since 2004. Because of the regularity with which they survey we’re able to see changes in momentum and tie catalysts to moments in the news cycle as well. Additionally, party ID is important for pollsters to understand for the purpose of having accurate samples in their polls. I’ll cover more on that dynamic tomorrow. First, let’s look at what’s changed in party ID this year as we’ve gone from a record setting economy to a pandemic driven recession and most recently civil unrest. I’ll use the first month of the start of each quarter to illustrate the changes.
- January (record setting economy): GOP+3
- April (pandemic lockdowns): DEM +4
- July (economic recovery – civil unrest): DEM +1
The political landscape has gone from a good one for Republicans to a good one for Democrats to nearly neutral as we head towards crunch time. Importantly for Republicans, they have the most recent political momentum and are currently in a position that’s actually more favorable today than it was on Election Day 2016 or 2018.
- Party ID split Election Day 2016: DEM +3
- Party ID split Election Day 2018: DEM +3
Republicans currently are two points better off in Party ID than in either of the past two cycles. If this can be maintained or improved upon, this will setup well for Republicans in November. This also gives us a renewed idea of what polling samples should look like which as mentioned – I'll address tomorrow.