Q&A of the Day – How do relocations impact the Census?
Each day I’ll feature a listener question that’s been submitted by one of these methods.
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Today’s entry: Since you are all about the facts, I thought I’d go to the person who would just give us the facts. I have seen many stories of people leaving New York, Chicago, California, Seattle, Portland (Cities and States alike) because of the protesting, rioters and increase violence (as well as other issues like taxes). As we are in the middle of the 2020 Census, how will this potentially affect congressional seats with this shift in population? Could we see a vast change in the number of House Seats provided to these areas because of this large shift in population? I have not heard anyone address this and it came to me while I was listening to your program. I’m very curious. Thank you.
Bottom Line: Relocating during Census surveys of course isn’t new. People have been relocating between states during surveys since the first was conducted. Additionally, simply relocating within a particular state could impact the outcome as Census surveys measure both population of a state but also geographic density. Here’s the first thought in addressing your question. There weren’t even statistics tracking relocations within the United States until 1947. In that year the Census Bureau began an annual Current Population Survey. While you raise a good question with Americans relocating, of course variance based on deaths and births would/should impact Census counts as well. The annual survey work aimed to account for all of these factors along with socioeconomic factors which could impact the government’s targeting of specific states/communities for what were generally newly available government assistance programs. This culminated in the Census starting a Mobility Report in 1948. It’s telling.
Between 1948-1968 we routinely saw 20% of Americans relocating annually. It’s clear the Post World War II economic boom had Americans on the move. That slowed – especially through the 70’s recession but then the Reagan economic boom in the mid-80's once again brought about 20%+ relocations at the peak. Starting with the late 80’s a new trend took over. Americans, regardless of economy, have been less likely to relocate. In fact, 2019 brought about the first sub 10% relocation rate in Census history. It’s a given that in the mist of the pandemic this year’s relocations will reach a new studied record low again – despite the added incentives some have to leave cities and states for the reasons you cited. Entering 2020, 906 people were relocating to Florida per day in 2019. The most recent estimates based on moving company data suggest the number has dropped into the 700 per day range. I offer all of this up to address the spirit of your question but to also suggest that whatever variances will take place in the 2020 Census, they will have the lowest relative impact on the outcome since the Census Bureau tracked relocation data. Now regarding where you are counted – there's a specific answer. According to the Census Bureau:
The goal of the 2020 Census is a complete and accurate count of everyone living in the United States and its five territories. You should count yourself at the place where you are living and sleeping most of the time as of April 1, 2020 (Census Day).
So, it doesn’t matter where you move throughout the year – your address of record is April 1st. This means that even if you relocate after April 1st, you’re supposed to complete the survey for where you previously lived. Realistically, we know this doesn’t always occur, but it is why such an emphasis is placed on having it completed by April 1st. But again, ironically in part due to the pandemic, it’s likely we have the most accurate Census accounting to date this year.