President Trump’s reelection odds & the state of the Presidential race
Bottom Line: Coming into the Presidential Election cycle the odds were on the side of Donald Trump winning reelection. Why?
- 65% of Presidents who run for reelection win
There is a clear incumbency advantage. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. A Presidential reelection bid is first and foremost a referendum on the incumbent President. History has shown that if people are generally satisfied with the performance of the President – they'll vote to stay with him. That necessarily makes the relevance of the challenger a secondary consideration. In this story I've taken the historical approval ratings of incumbent Presidents running for reelection and tracked the outcomes of those elections. In so doing I’m able to project historical reelection odds for President Trump based on his current ratings.
Here’s where we stand as of today:
- 30% based on a 43% average approval rating across all samples
- 64% based on a 48% average approval rating with likely voters
Throughout the course of President Trump’s administration, he’s consistently performed best with likely voters. This remains the case as we’re under eleven weeks away from Election Day. If we focus in on only likely voters, we see his advantage improve meaningfully making him the odds-on favorite which is a vastly different picture than if we look at his approval among all adult samples polled over the past week. That makes this election one that’s all about turnout and specifically who turns out.
Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, the challenge and opportunity for Democrats, is to convert more adults who currently aren’t likely to vote into voters this November. With most adults who aren’t currently planning on voting holding a less favorable view of President Trump than those who are intending to vote - there’s a potential winning roadmap for Democrats between now and November.
The question political operatives must address is why, less than three months away from Election Day, hasn’t someone decided they’re likely to vote. The answer is usually the lack of enthusiasm for a particular candidate. In nominating Joe Biden for President, Democrats picked a candidate who consistently appeared to be the least likely candidate to activate new would-be Democrat voters. That places Democrats in the position to rely largely on hatred of Trump as the motivating factor for voting. The tactic of using angst to encourage voters to vote against someone they loathe is effective with many voters, especially a party’s base, but there will always remain many who will only vote if they feel they have someone they want to vote for. Someone who isn’t a likely voter probably feels as though they don’t have that candidate. For that reason, President Trump remains a favorite to win this week. That’s a pretty good place for him to be with the DNC now over the RNC set to kickoff next week. To be continued...