2020 Election Series - Who will Control Congress?
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Bottom Line: Each cycle I provide analysis aimed providing insight that cuts through the noise. History has a way of repeating itself so at the onset of this series we first need to account for the type of cycle this one happens to be. It’s a reelection bid for an incumbent Republican President. In these cycles the average outcome is the following in Congress:
- Senate: No net change
- House: Republicans +9 seats
Republicans currently control the Senate with 53 seats. Should the typical outcome occur for this type of cycle, Republicans would retain control of the Senate. Likewise, even if Republicans were to gain the average of nine seats typically gained during this type of cycle, Democrats who have a majority in the House by 38 seats, would retain control. We enter this election cycle with the status quo, split control of Congress, being the most likely outcome this year.
If there’s to be a change in congressional control Democrats will need to net four total senate seats if President Trump is reelected or three is Joe Biden is elected. A total of 35 senate seats are up for election this year. 23 are held by Republicans, meaning there’s more opportunity for Democrats to potentially flip seats than for Republicans to gain ground. Of course, in the House all seats are up for election every two years. Broadly, when it comes to Congress, the generic ballot polling is what’s looked to as a temperature check of how people intend to vote in congressional races.
In this week’s exercise I’m breaking down the House races by those decided by ten points or less in 2018 and comparing them to how President Trump fared in those districts in 2016. There were 49 races in the House decided by fewer than ten points in 2018 – or just over 11% of all races. Of those, President Trump fared better than the 2018 Republicans in 38 of those districts. This includes Trump outright winning 17 districts won by Democrats in 2018. These represent solid pickup opportunities for Republicans this year. At the same time, it shows the uphill battle Republicans have in winning the House this year. While it’s certainly a possibility to take back the House, Republicans would need to once again carry those districts under Trump and pick up a couple of surprise wins along the way. That’s why the odds slightly favor Democrats losing seats but hanging onto the House. Until next week...