2020 Election Series: The Anatomy of a Swing State - September 30th
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Bottom Line: We’re now under five weeks away from Election Day on November 3rd. Each cycle I analyze states that were decided by ten points or less in the previous presidential election cycle. These represent potential swing states that are in play for both parties heading into each cycle. It’s a fluid number which reflects changes in the electorate overtime. In 2016 there were 16 states decided by fewer than ten points. President Trump won 30 states in 2016 including nine of the sixteen swing states which proved key to his victory. Notably, President Trump doesn’t have to retain all those states to win reelection. His margin of victory, with 306 electoral votes, was 36 more than what’s needed to win.
Here’s the current averaged polling in the swing states compared to where President Trump was polling on the same date in 2016. This provides an apples-to-apples temperature check of how President Trump is trending compared to exactly four years ago. Polls can’t be taken at face value without adjusting for samples. As a result, I’m not interested in which candidate polls suggest are leading in a particular state but rather where Trump is tracking compared to four years ago.
Polling averages September 29th, 2016 compared to September 29th, 2020:
- Arizona: Trump -6
- Florida: Flat
- Georgia: Trump -4
- Iowa: Trump -5
- Michigan: Flat
- North Carolina: Trump -2
- Ohio: Trump -5
- Pennsylvania: Trump -4
- Wisconsin: Trump -1
Over the past week President Trump’s pacing improved in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin. It declined in Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania. There were notable changes in the outcome of three states this week based on President Trump's pacing compared to four years ago. This week Trump’s pacing puts Florida and Wisconsin narrowly back in his corner while Pennsylvania now currently favors Biden. The net-net of these changes is obviously positive overall for President Trump – more about that in a moment. Now for the states carried by Hillary Clinton, which Joe Biden will need to retain, in addition to adding at least two of the Trump states if he’s to win this year. Here's Biden’s current pacing compared Hillary Clinton four years ago today:
- Colorado – Biden +10
- Maine – Biden +12
- Minnesota – Biden +6
- Nevada – Biden +6
- New Hampshire - Flat
- New Mexico - Biden + 7
- Virginia - Biden +4
This week Biden’s pacing improved in Colorado, Maine, Minnesota and New Hampshire. What does this week’s exercise suggest with just under five weeks until Election Day? Biden gains Pennsylvania, all other states play out as they did in 2016 and President Trump holds a 286 to 252 lead in the Electoral College. This is the first week over the past three in which President Trump is back to a potentially winning position. It’s clearly a very close race at this point as we wait to watch and see the impact of the first Presidential debate over the next week. As a reminder... Momentum now matters in swing states as voting is officially underway across the country. Historically the first debate can impact a race by up to five points. Ten of the sixteen swing states are in play as of today’s polling if there were to be a swing of up to five points coming out of it. To be continued...