2020 Election Series: The Anatomy of a Swing State – October 21st
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Bottom Line: We’re now under two weeks away from Election Day. Each cycle I analyze states that were decided by ten points or less in the previous presidential election cycle. These represent potential swing states that are in play for both parties heading into each cycle. It’s a fluid number which reflects changes in the electorate overtime. In 2016 there were 16 states decided by fewer than ten points. President Trump won 30 states in 2016 including nine of the sixteen swing states which proved key to his victory. Notably, President Trump doesn’t have to retain all those states to win reelection. His margin of victory, with 306 electoral votes, was 36 more than what’s needed to win.
Here’s the current averaged polling in the swing states compared to where President Trump was polling on the same date in 2016. This provides an apples-to-apples temperature check of how President Trump is trending compared to exactly four years ago. Polls can’t be taken at face value without adjusting for samples. As a result, I’m not interested in which candidate polls suggest are leading in a particular state but rather where Trump is tracking compared to four years ago.
Polling averages October 20th, 2016 compared to October 20th, 2020:
- Arizona: Trump -2
- Florida: Trump +3
- Georgia: Trump -5
- Iowa: Trump -5
- Michigan: Trump +4
- North Carolina: Trump +1
- Ohio: Flat
- Pennsylvania: Trump +2
- Wisconsin: Trump +1
Over the past week President Trump’s pacing:
Improved:
- Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin
Unchanged:
- Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania
Declined:
- Iowa, Ohio
The bottom line is that the past week has generally been a good one for President Trump in swing states he carried in 2016, in fact his pacing is now the best it’s been since I began this year’s Anatomy of a Swing state series. For the first time this cycle President Trump is pacing well enough to carry all states he won four years ago. This includes wins by even wider margins in Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin than four years ago.
Now for a look at Biden’s current pacing compared Hillary Clinton four years ago today:
- Colorado – Biden +4
- Maine – Biden +5
- Minnesota – Biden +1
- Nevada – Biden +1
- New Hampshire – Biden +3
- New Mexico - Biden +5
- Virginia - Biden +2
Improved:
- Colorado, New Mexico
Declined:
- Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia
The good news for Biden is that he’s pacing better than Hillary Clinton four years ago in all of the swing states she won. The bad news for Biden is that without picking up at least two of the swing states President Trump won four years ago he’s on pace to suffer a similar fate as Clinton. As of this week’s analysis, President Trump is pacing a 306-232 Electoral College victory. Identical to four years ago. This is the biggest lead President Trump has paced during the course of this cycle and suggests he might have momentum, just as he did four years ago, heading into Election Day. To be continued...