Florida’s magic number in the Presidential election is...
Bottom Line: A lots happened in four years. Heck look at how our entire world has changed just this year! But something that hasn’t is the likelihood that Florida’s Presidential election will be close. In fact, the polls today (Biden average 2-point lead) in Florida nearly reflect the same as they did four years ago today (Clinton 4-point lead). While so much around us has changed over four years ago, as individuals, we tend to be a bit more predictable. You might call us creatures of habit when it comes to elections. With that in mind I’ll cut to the chase. The magic number for the Presidential election in Florida is 209,360. Where did that come from? It’s margin of President Trump’s victory in 2016 over Hillary Clinton – 112,911 votes - added to the deficit Republicans faced in votes cast by mail and through early voting heading into Election Day 2016 – 96,450.
The logic works like this. We know not all Democrats and Republicans vote for the Presidential candidate in thier party (though over 90% do). We also don’t have real clarity on how NPA’s and minor party affiliated voters will break. We can track who has voted but we don’t know how they voted until results are revealed Election night. Based on what happened four years ago we know that 96,450 more Democrats than Republicans voted by mail and through early voting resulting in a Trump win of nearly 113,000 votes. Here’s what we also know has happened over the past four years...
- Republicans have added 196,186 more voters than Democrats in Florida
What does that suggest in the context of this conversation? Comparing where we are today in Florida to four years ago provides a margin of error to the benefit of Republicans. It’s a margin which should also be able to compensate for a slight shift in NPA and minor party affiliated support. That’s why the magic number I’m watching is 209,360. As of yesterday, 486,797 more Democrats had voted than Republicans. If that number is 209,360 or less by Election Day, it’s almost certain President Trump will win Florida. If it’s above that number, it’s very likely Joe Biden will. That’s what I’ll be watching in Florida between now and then.