Top Three Takeaways – November 10th
- Engagement. Should his legal challenges fail to change the outcome in at least three states, President Trump will have lost this Presidential election with over eight million more votes than he won with four years ago and six million more than Hillary Clinton won the popular vote with in 2016. While Joe Biden won the popular vote with the most ever recorded, similarly for President Trump, he won more votes than any Republican, or candidate not named Joe Biden, in history.
- Literally a 50-50 country. When all of the votes are counted Joe Biden will have won around 4 million more votes than President Trump. For perspective, it’s a total that's less than the difference of California alone. The tale of two Americas has been on full and growing display since 2000. Consider that in 2016 President Trump lost the national popular vote (again by a margin less than the difference in California) but won 30 of the 50 states. Should the current leads in each of the states be certified as they currently appear, Biden would have won 25 states (and D.C.) and Trump would have won 25 states. A truly divided country politically – except at the state level...
- Republican outperformance has been and remains a major storyline. From President Trump all the way down ballot to local races, Republicans outperformed “expert” predictions. Millions of Americans voted for Biden for president but Republicans down ballot. The most notable example is Maine where Biden won by about 9 points but where Republican Senator Susan Collins will have won by 9 points. This was replicated across the country as it appears 31 state legislatures will be controlled by Republicans, with another split, once results are finalized. In other words, six states which voted for Biden, also voted for Republicans to control their state government. A seventh split control. This illustrates a level of pragmatism by voters which isn’t really being discussed. That’s in addition to Republicans gaining ground in the House of Representatives and outperforming expectations in the Senate. Here’s the takeaway – the country remains center-right. Key to control of the Senate come January – Georgia is one of those six states. This bodes well for Republicans at the onset of the two runoff races which will likely determine control of the chamber.
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