Top Three Takeaways – December 1st
- It’s December 1st and it’s literally freezing everywhere north of Florida right now. I’ve said several times recently that there isn’t a day I wake up and am not thankful to live in South Florida. Today certainly isn’t an exception. We’re starting December with the coolest start in Florida since 2010 – which holds the record as the coldest December in recorded history. Of course, this doesn’t mean that this December will equal that December’s cool temperatures, though it could. What it does mean is that already everyone who wants to be in Florida but isn’t, is already wishing they were here. What is different than ten years ago is this pandemic. It’s not complicated, would you rather ride out winter in a pandemic here or there? It’s been well documented that Florida has benefitted most from migration during the pandemic with over 800 new residents per day moving here on average. What hasn’t been discussed is context. According to Redfin a record number of people moved to Florida in the third quarter of 2020 and a record number currently intend to. How big is the number? Literally double the total from last year. That’s the difference a pandemic makes. We’ve heard from numerous surveys that snowbirds don’t plan on coming down this year. I’m not buying. Instead, I think they’ll be buying, many with the intention of never leaving.
- December 21st, that’s the beginning of the winter solstice. Flu season coincides with winter for a reason. More people staying indoors in close proximity together. While the vaccine news is encouraging, the pandemic won’t be over in three weeks. Between now and then it’s likely COVID cases will continue to rise along with the traditional flu season. It’s also a date that’s after Hanukkah (December 10th through the 18th) but before Christmas. Why does this matter? If you’re staring at the prospect of not being able to celebrate the holidays as you’d prefer with family up north anyway and the daily case counts in your cold state continue to rise...there’s even less of a consideration to stay. I wouldn’t be surprised if the influx this week isn’t the highest of the year. My theory is that this season is the one that starts early and doesn’t end for many. This was already the case this year when many snowbirds never left. That takes us to...
- February 12th, The average peak of flu season. If history holds there’s a reasonable chance COVID cases will generally continue to climb until then. Even with a vaccine on the market. Surveys show about half of the country is reticent to go for a COVID vaccine once it’s available. Additionally, the ramp up vs the demand will take time. If you’re looking at this in a glass half full kind of a way, there’s a chance the pandemic will have peaked in just over two months. On the other hand, back to where I started, if you’ve been on the fence about coming to Florida there’s a lot to get you off of it between now and then. After all, where would you rather ride out the pandemic in winter. Here or there? Wherever there north of us happens to be.
Photo Credit: Getty images