Has the political tide already shifted?
Bottom Line: What a difference a month can make politically. In the context of Presidential election cycles, it’s often in the form of an “October surprise”. Most of the rest of the time change catalysts are more subtle. For example, in the case of the current political landscape in which Democrats have held complete control of the federal government...we’ve seen a record number of executive orders by President Biden - which most notably had the immediate impact of putting over 12,000 people out of work in the name of green energy and allowing over 25,000 illegal immigrants into the United States. In Congress, the highlight has been an impeachment trial of a former president. While former President Trump may ask the question of if we miss him yet, when he speaks at CPAC in Orlando this Sunday, it’s evident the political tide has already shifted.
Gallup’s monthly polling on party ID, which has been conducted since January of 2004, just saw the biggest one-month shift in a non-election year in its history of sampling. In January’s first sampling of party ID, Democrats held a 6% advantage over Republicans on party ID, that was a 5% gain over Election Day’s 1% advantage for Democrats. Less than a full month later that advantage was gone. All of it. As of today, 25% of Americans ID as Democrats and 25% as Republicans. That’s due to a one-point gain by Republicans over the past month along with a 5% loss by Democrats. It’s clear the first month’s actions by Democrats have turned many off already. Of course, many had already been turned off by Republicans as well which leads to the other first in Gallup’s sampling. There are as many Americans who don’t identify with either major political party as there are those who do. Half the country isn’t happy with either.
It’s way too early to talk about future electoral considerations but there are a few takeaways we can glean from this survey work.
- Republican party ID bottomed out in January
- The early agenda of Democrats has turned off a record number of Americans
- The landscape is the best it’s been for independents and 3rd party candidates in modern political history
If you’re concerned about what’s happening in Washington, you’ve got company, including by many who voted for it in November. As for where we go from here? I’ll keep you posted.
Photo Credit: Getty Images