Q&A Of The Day – Are Congressional Incumbents More Vulnerable?
Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods.
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Today’s entry: Your theory that Charlie Crist may be running for governor because he might lose his reelection was interesting. I wasn’t aware that he barely won his race last year. My question for you is in regard to turnover in Congress. It used to be said that the power of incumbency led to almost every incumbent being reelected. At least in Florida that seems to have changed. For example, in 2018 Democrats flipped multiple seats from Republicans in South Florida but Republicans flipped a Senate seat and then last year Republicans flipped those seats back. Are incumbents less likely to win than they used to be and do you think voters are paying more attention?
Bottom Line: It’s a good question. I’ll first reset, starting with Charlie Crist. Earlier in the week I mentioned Charlie Crist’s potential vulnerability as a potential contributing factor in his decision to make another run for governor. Specially, I cited his 15% margin of victory in 2018 was cut to just 6% last year along with uncertainties associated with redistricting heading into the 2022 cycle. To be clear, I don’t think that would be the reason, we know he wants to be governor again, after all he ran for that office prior to running for a seat in the U.S. House but if he was on the fence, it could be the kind of catalyst to get him off of it. But no, his perceived vulnerability and drop in performance doesn’t segue with the overall trend of Congressional vulnerability. In fact, what’s been happening in Florida is unusual compared to the rest of the country.
Since 1900 the record high number for Congressional incumbents winning is 98% (which has happened five times). The record low was 69% in 1932. This speaks to the power incumbency generally, no matter the cycle there’s been the certainty of a greater than 2/3rd's chance of winning re-election. More recently, over the past five cycles, we’ve averaged 94% re-election rates, which is higher than the historical average and in 2020 the rate was 95%. In reality, incumbents have been more likely to win over the past decade. As for Florida, we’re not that different, it’s probably more about South Florida geography having seen two seats flip multiple times in the past two cycles. While we did have two Republicans seats in the House flip to Democrats in 2018 and two flip back to Republicans in 2020, That still means 93% of Florida’s House seats were won by incumbents (or stayed in the same party for those who didn’t seek re-election).
So, to answer your question, incumbents are actually more likely than they’ve been to win historically and as to the question as to if voters are paying more attention? You could make the case based on the surge in voter turnout last year. Regardless, it’s a case of the more things change the more they stay the same – at least in terms of the likelihood of incumbents winning re-election in Congress.
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