June's Hurricane History
Bottom Line: Hurricane season is officially here, though for a seventh consecutive year our first named storm happened prior to getting here. After last year’s record setting season with 30 named storms, the consensus estimates suggest we’ll be well below that total this year. On that note, despite having had another May storm develop, we’re already off to a better start as we were already two named storms into the season before actually getting there last year.
In Florida, despite a few close calls (most notably Dorian in 2019), we’ve managed to avoid the direct impact of a hurricane over the past three years. In Southeast Florida, the last storm to register hurricane force winds was Irma in 2017 as she made her way through the keys and up Florida’s west coast. We’ve been fortunate for quite a while, especially given how active recent seasons have been. Here’s to hoping we add another uneventful year to the tally.
According to NOAA, here’s what we should expect based on the midpoint of their guidance:
- 60% chance for an above active season
- 16.5 named storms
- 8 hurricanes, about half of which are expected to be major (cat 3 or above)
Were that to happen, this season would be 45% less active than last year. That’s a positive place to start the conversation this year. Here’s another, going back to the onset of record keeping for tropical storms and hurricanes here's how much activity has taken place in June:
- 5% of all tropical storms
- 3% of all hurricanes
Something to keep in mind is that June storms generally form closer to the US and are more likely to make landfall. While just 3% of all hurricanes have formed in June, 7% of all landfalls in the US have occurred during the month. We’re starting the month and the official start of the season off with good news. The hurricane center’s site currently says no tropical cyclones are expected for the next five days. Also, historically, about 3% of the storms that form occur prior to hurricane season... So, we’re already part of the way through the season as it starts. We’ve got that going for us too.
Photo Credit: Colorado State University