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Top Three Takeaways – November 4th, 2021
- This is a movement which compares favorably with the strength of the Tea Party in 2009. As I first outlined on Tuesday, if this was a movement-based election cycle, Youngkin would win in Virginia and New Jersey would be in play – despite all of the polls showing that it wasn’t. It’s notable that not one poll showed even a possibility of a Republican winning the New Jersey Governor’s race as Murphy showed an advantage outside of the margin of error of every poll conducted in the state. That the race was so close on back of Virginia breaking for Republicans in all statewide races - we now have a clearer picture of the national implications. The Tea Party movement of 2009 was organically born out of a rejection of the Obama administration's record debt spending and rapid expansion of government - especially in healthcare. Those were themes that resonated across the country, which is what’s needed for a true movement. The themes which played out on Tuesday night likewise are national themes that resonate everywhere. Parental input over what’s being taught in schools and personal choice over government mandates. In fact, as far as movement issues go – those two themes are more uniting and bi-partisan than even the Tea Party themes of 12 years ago. That’s why...
- This could be a generational movement. Over the past couple of weeks, I pointed out data I’d never seen previously. A Democrat president having the lowest approval ratings with the youngest voters. Historically, the age range most likely to vote for Democrats has been those between the ages of 18-34. That’s been true for every generation since polling began in the 1930’s. Until perhaps now. Two Friday’s ago, I brought you the info that President Biden’s average approval rating was 34% among voters 18-34 in Florida specifically and nationally as well. The lowest of any age range. Younger adults overwhelmingly reject vaccine mandates in lieu of personal choice and lockdowns which have hit their generation the hardest. Ditto the highest inflation in decades. This is similar to what happened with my generation in the 80’s coming out of Jimmy Carter’s failed presidency which featured 18% interest rates, sky-high gas prices, and the creation of the Department of Education which formalized the nationalization of the education establishment. There’s a reason why Alex P. Keaton’s love of Reagan was a key component on a popular show. This dynamic showed up in Virginia and New Jersey on Tuesday where voters between the ages of 18-34 broke for Democrats by fewer than ten points – a near twenty-point shift over just a year ago - the largest shift of any group. This movement to reclaim control of our children’s education, reclaim personal choice over what’s injected into our bodies and to restore our economy has the potential to be even more powerful than the Tea Party because it has the potential be the kind that forever shapes the political views of a generation of young adults driven by issues which impact everyone, everyday.
- This wave is building. That’s a quote from Governor DeSantis yesterday. It wasn’t his most reported on quote yesterday as during his visit in West Palm Beach, he kicked off a full-fledged “Let’s go Brandon” rally once referring to the Biden Administration as the Brandon administration - which many in news media are losing their minds over (becoming as arguably entertaining as the chant is satisfying). Anyway, back to the wave. Governor DeSantis said this: I think people are rebelling against what the Democratic Party stands for nowadays. The never-ending mandates and restrictions because of COVID. Using our school systems for leftist indoctrination rather than high-quality education. And then the Biden regime’s failures from Afghanistan to the southern border. Gas prices, inflation, supply chain. That’s specifically why he thinks the wave is building that he predicts will be greater than the Tea Party led wave of 2010. If it is, you’ll be hearing a lot more “rooting for Brandon” and can be certain Ron DeSantis will remain your governor – which was already a safe bet. But here’s one more little nugget from Tuesday’s elections. The biggest story about 2022 and 2024 didn’t play out in Virginia – it happened in New Jersey. Aside from the nugget I gave about younger voters at the onset. The biggest gains for Republicans from last year to this one – Hispanics/Latinos in New Jersey. You’ll hear a lot about suburban moms, which is a big part of the story, but the biggest came among young Hispanic and Latino voters in New Jersey. This wave is building.