Q&A – Are Democrats Moving Out of Florida as Republicans Move In?
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Today’s Entry: @brianmuddradio Is there any way to tell if Dems are moving out as Reps move into FL?
Bottom Line: It’s a good question, its one I briefly touched on yesterday when breaking down Florida’s latest voter registration information which once again showed a record Republican voter registration advantage over Democrats. Quick recap... Florida’s Republican voter registration advantage is now 89,528 voters. That’s an edge which grew by an additional 22,053 voters over the previous month alone. The most curious aspect of what’s happened with Florida’s voter registrations over the past year, is that Democrats have literally seen declining voter registrations every month. Given Florida’s rapid population growth – 2nd highest in the last year with an increase of 211,196 residents last year according to the Census Bureau – Democrats losing large numbers of registered voters monthly is that much more notable. As I mentioned in yesterday’s Takeaways... The old concern by Florida’s conservatives was that blue state transplants would bring their politics with them and change Florida’s political landscape. Well, they have, but they’ve been conservatives. What we haven’t explored is who’s leaving. There’s increasingly a case to be made that while Governor DeSantis’ leadership has caused mass conservative migration to Florida – it's having a smaller but similar effect with those choosing to leave. One of two things is happening. Far more Democrats are dying than Republicans or far more Democrats are moving out of state than Republicans.
Since the end of 2020, Democrats have lost 270,105 registered voters in Florida. Voter rolls are reconciled monthly and reflect voters who’ve reregistered in a different political party, those who’ve died, those who’ve been convicted of a felony and those who’ve moved. The state provides a lot of data about voter registrations which helps provide texture to changes in voter registrations. This includes a monthly update on new voter registrations and those who’ve been removed from voter rolls. Here’s what’s happened since the start of 2021:
- 682,270 new voter registrations
- 554,599 voters removed from voter rolls
Within all of those changes is a loss of greater than 270-thousand voters for Democrats. So, is it a case that for some reason more Democrats are dying than Republicans in Florida? That seems unlikely. The Pew Research Center has previously identified that Republican identification within Florida rises with age – with those 65 and older being the most likely to be Republicans. If anything, more Republicans than Democrats have likely died over the past year. Was it shenanigans? While there’s still an ongoing investigation into allegations that GOP canvassers tricked some registered Democrats into reregistering as Republicans over the past year, only a little over 100 such instances have been identified in Miami-Dade – the state’s most populous county. That isn’t going to account for the shift. So, about the whole migration thing...
One of the most interesting tells about who is coming and going comes from Real-Estate analytics company Redfin. Their #5 prediction for this year based on monitored trends was this...
- People will vote with their feet moving to places that align with their politics.
That came on back of this info... A recent Redfin survey confirms that a substantial share of homebuyers won’t move to a place where the laws conflict with their political beliefs.
And how many Americans are considering politics when moving from one state to another? According to Redfin, a minimum of 1 in 7 voters won’t move to a state that doesn’t align with their values. We’ve long talked about blue states and red states, but the pandemic obviously took political considerations at the state level to a whole new level. While surveys have shown, and state voter registration information backs up, a reality that what Redfin depicted has indeed brought a disproportionate number of Republicans and independents into Florida over the past couple of years...it appears to also be the case that Democrats have been more likely than Republicans and Independents to move away from Florida.
One other dynamic of note about Florida’s political flip over the past year. The GOP gains over Democrats haven’t been geographically discriminating. Republicans have gained ground on Democrats in 66 of 67 counties – including all of South Florida, over the past year.