September’s Hurricane History - 2022
Bottom Line: The calendar tells us that we're halfway through hurricane season. The calendar and the timing of tropical systems are two different animals, however. As we get ready for whatever September has in store for us this year – we can take solace in South Florida having once again successfully navigated the first three months of hurricane season. In fact, it’s been a historically quiet start to this year’s season. Not only have we made it to September with only three named storms. None have been hurricanes. When was the last time we made it this far with three or fewer named storms and no hurricanes? 1984. Yep, it's been 38 years since we’ve had such a peaceful start to the season. That’s obviously a far cry from what was predicted coming into it. In comparison last year we entered September with 11 named storms, including four hurricanes. Fingers crossed our good fortune continues for the final three.
As for September’s hurricane history – it’s notable for two reasons. It's the most active month of hurricane season and the historical peak day of hurricane season is September 10th. Here’s a look at how much of the season is really left by using historical storm activity as a guide.
Since tracking of the Atlantic Hurricane season began in 1851:
- 36% of all tropical storms have formed during September
- 40% of all hurricanes have formed during the month
On average 3.6 tropical storms and 2.5 hurricanes have formed in September. In reality, as we enter the second half of hurricane season here’s how much of the season is behind us:
- 33% based on hurricane development
- 37% based on tropical storm development
So, statistically, though the calendar says we’re halfway through hurricane season, in terms of historical storm development, we've got most of the season ahead of us. In happier news, once we cross the mid-point of September, the odds shift the other way quickly. Fingers crossed.