Q&A of the Day – Climate Change & A Quiet Atlantic Hurricane Season
Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods.
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Today’s entry: Hey Brian, here’s one for your Q&A. How is it that that the climate alarmists, aka meteorologists, could be so wrong about hurricane season?
Bottom Line: I’ll start by saying I hear where you’re coming from, and I get it. When it comes to long range forecasts, like hurricane season or whatever will be with the environment years from now, I’ve long joked that the day meteorologists are able to nail our daily forecasts I’ll be more inclined to believe them. As we’re heading into the peak week of hurricane season, crossing the halfway mark in historical activity in the process, we’ve done so against the backdrop of one of the most benign starts to the Atlantic Hurricane Season on record. As I mentioned yesterday, the last year we entered September with three or fewer named storms and no hurricanes was 1984. Also, as many others pointed out, the last August without a named storm developing was 1997. While we don’t know what happens from here, we do know that what’s happened and what we were conditioned for coming into this season could not be further apart. Literally every preseason hurricane forecast called for a well above average season – with even the lowest possible end of the predicted range resulting in an above average season, with the upper end of the predicted range resulting in one of the most active seasons on record. Clearly that’s not what’s happening here.
The 1984 season resulted in a total of 12 named storms, five hurricanes, one of which was major. So that’s the current pace we’re keeping based upon historical activity. Were that to play out the season we would be well below the lowest possible projected range of activity from any forecaster. As we’ve progressed through this year’s benign hurricane season, I’ve increasingly been receiving notes like today’s. It’s a byproduct of what happens when issues become politized which is why I say I get it. Of all of the issues which shouldn’t be politicized but have been, climate science is one of the most frustrating to me. Some on the right say there’s no such thing as climate change or a man-made impact on it. Some on the left say climate change is all a direct result of our activity and issue dire predictions about what will soon happen based on our impact. As an analyst and conservationist whose studied this extensively, I can tell you none of those absolutes are true.
Climate change is real. There’s never been a time in our planet’s history where some degree of climate change hasn’t been taking place. The question is a matter of how much of an impact we’re having on it. And on that note, yes we do have a demonstrable impact on the climate. You need look no further than our waterways to see how we can and have physically altered our planet negatively. Deforestation is another obvious way we can and have negatively impacted our environment. A rainforest is the most biodiverse ecosystem on the planet. That’s obviously gone when it’s removed. It stands to reason that there are activities we engage in that have impacts that aren’t as obvious. With all of that said, what’s not clear is the extent to which we negatively impact climate change. But of course, that hasn’t stopped many alarmists from making sweeping claims about our actions resulting in all negative climate change and issuing dire predictions about what soon happens if we don’t embrace whatever their prescribed remedies happen to be. Pragmatism is important in these conversations. Far too often it seems lacking. And the reason I took time talking through those thoughts is because it potentially plays into hurricane season forecasting along with what is and isn’t being discussed. I’ll explain.
At the forefront of active hurricane predictions has been the topic of climate change. And specifically warmer temperatures, and especially warmer oceans, resulting from climate change resulting in increasingly active hurricane seasons. This is logical. It’s a fact that warmer waters are more conducive for tropical development – hence why hurricane season occurs when it does. But there’s a big ‘ole fly in the climate-change = ever more hurricanes argument. It’s not analytical. And it’s been on my radar for over two years.
You might have noticed we seemingly have had more Saharan Dust clouds flying over South Florida. It’s not your imagination, we have. Now, I specifically had been researching this because my wife Ashley has asthma, and the increasing Saharan Dust activity has meant she’s had to change inhalers, use them more often and frequently pops Zyrtec. As part of my research into the Saharan Dust I came across a Harvard study in 2020 entitled Climate change affects Saharan dust stroms. The lead line says it all: A New groundbreaking study shows that warming planet will make dust storms more intense in the Mediterranean and the Atlantic. Now, without diving into all of the specs of the study, the bottom line is this. The past couple of years we have seen a marked increase in Saharan Dust clouds and Harvard’s researchers offer extensive evidence that rising temperatures/climate change is behind it. Few things act as a greater hurricane repellant than massive dust clouds across the entire Atlantic (crossing over into the Gulf). The question is, why didn’t hurricane researchers account for this?
This hurricane season has been as inactive as it's been up to now due largely to well above normal Saharan Dust clouds. It’s also the reason rainy season hasn’t been near as rainy as usual for many in South Florida this year. But is this front and center in the collective meteorological conversation? Seemingly not. At least not publicly. And this is illustrative of what happens when narratives are latched onto as opposed to being truly analytical in the dissemination of information. And the creation of hurricane forecasts as the case may be. The metrological community may have been generally correct about climate change, yet failed to analyze all of the related effects. What will be interesting going forward is what the explanation will be. Will the climate agenda/narrative color coverage and information or will there be intellectual honesty about this phenomenon? You might imagine some with climate agendas not wanting to publicly admit that it’s possible climate change could result in fewer hurricanes. We’ll see.